Ukrainian Peace Summit Opens the Door to Moscow

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Facts

• A draft text from Ukraine's forthcoming Global Peace Summit has for the first time opened the door to Russian involvement in talks, according to a document from the summit obtained by Bloomberg.¹
• The initiative, first announced by Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April, is to be held in Switzerland on June 15, and hopes to attract 80 to 100 nations. However, Russia's participation in the event has so far been barred.²
• Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Sunday, Zelenskyy said he was 'disappointed' by the absence of some world leaders, going on to allege that China had acted as 'an instrument' of the Russian regime by dissuading countries from coming.³
• In a call with reporters on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated his country's position that peace talks without Russian involvement are meaningless. 'This is a completely absurd activity, this is an idle pastime,' he said, adding it was obvious the meeting was not geared towards results. 'That's why many countries don't want to waste time.'⁴
• However, the draft of a Ukrainian summit document obtained by Bloomberg later in the day suggests some diplomacy at play. While outlining Ukraine's three priorities, it added it would 'undertake concrete steps which can serve as confidence building measures' in order to 'further engagement of the representatives of the Russian Federation.'¹
• Elsewhere, in an interview with Time magazine published Tuesday, US Pres. Joe Biden was asked about his vision for peace if the war was to end. 'Peace looks like making sure Russia never, never, never, never occupies Ukraine,' he said. 'It doesn't mean NATO, [that] they [Ukraine] are part of NATO.'⁵

Sources: ¹Ukrainska Pravda (a), ²President, ³Guardian, ⁴Zawya and ⁵Ukrainska Pravda (b).

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. While the summit aims to lay the groundwork for the involvement of representatives of Russia down the line, such steps can only be taken on the basis of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. However, Moscow has failed to accept that framework.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Zawya. It's clear to most countries that peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine war without Russian involvement seem like an exercise in the trivial. Such talks of peace can only progress when Russian and Ukrainian diplomats sit at the same negotiating table.

Predictions