Ukrainian Military Commander Speaks Out as Zelenskyy Considers Firing Him

Facts

• Ukraine's top military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, published an opinion piece for CNN on Thursday calling for 'a new philosophy of training and warfare' to deal with limited resources. This comes amid rumors that Pres. Zelenskyy will fire Zaluzhnyi due to differences of opinion regarding military leadership.¹
• Zaluzhnyi further stated that the 'central driver of this war is the development of unmanned weapons systems,' adding that while the 'mastery of such technologies is key,' Ukraine must also reckon with its lack of personnel staffing in the military.²
• The rift between Zelenskyy and his top general was exemplified last November when Zaluzhnyi publicly claimed the war was in a 'stalemate,' which prompted Zelenskyy to criticize him. Zelenskyy, who wasn't referred to by name in Zaluzhnyi's article, has also denied the general's request for an additional 500k soldiers.³
• The opinion piece also argued that Ukraine has been 'hamstrung by the imperfections of the regulatory framework' and the 'partial monopolization of the defense industry,' which he said leads 'to production bottlenecks' that 'further deepen Ukraine’s dependence on its allies for supplies.'²
• While Ukrainian media reported earlier this week that Zaluzhnyi would be fired — with CNN reporting yesterday that the dismissal could come at the end of the week — no official presidential decree has been made. Zaluzhnyi has served as the military's top commander since July 2021.⁴
• A senior official in Zelenskyy's office, however, recently said that Zelenskyy has not made a decision to fire Zaluzhnyi 'as of today,' also asking the issue not to be politicized.⁵

Sources: ¹Bloomberg, ²CNN, ³Washington Post, ⁴The Kyiv Independent and ⁵www.euractiv.com.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Hill. The only reason General Zaluzhnyi could justifiably be removed is his failed counteroffensive. However, there's likely no other military leader in the country who could have done a better job, and his military qualities far outweigh the negative, petty differences he has with Zelenskyy. Ukraine has developed an incredibly successful defensive position— one that has remained strong due to Zaluzhnyi's ability to boost soldier's morale and continue to train new soldiers. Firing him would have no positive outcomes, but it could have negative ones.
• Narrative B, as provided by Semafor. First and foremost, President Zelenskyy has made no decision yet regarding Zaluzhnyi's future in the military. However, there are multiple reasons for Zelenskyy to consider dismissing him, including his creation of a charitable foundation in 2022 — which has been seen as the potential beginning of a political party to challenge the president. It's true that the majority of Ukrainians are against firing Zaluzhnyi, which is why Zelenskyy has taken a cautious approach.

Predictions