Ukrainian Commander: Frontline Situation Has Worsened

Facts

• Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, said that in the face of multiple Russian attacks over the weekend, the frontline situation has worsened for Ukraine and that its troops withdrew from multiple positions in the eastern Donetsk region.¹
• Syrskyi described the situations near the cities of Maryinka and Avdiivka — both under Russian control — as the 'most difficult,' stating that Russian forces had taken new positions west of the villages of Berdychi and Semenivka, both north of Avdiivka, and Novomykhailivka, near Maryinka, in recent days.²
• While his statement added that freshly rested Ukrainian brigades have been sent to replace those that suffered losses, it made no mention of Novobakhmutivka — another Dontesk village that Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have captured on Sunday.²
• In light of the losses, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a fresh appeal to international partners, urging them to speed up arms deliveries. Zelenskyy added that he spoke with US House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and that the Ukrainian leader 'underscored that Patriot systems are needed, and as soon as possible.'³
• Meanwhile, Syrskyi's statement added his forces were closely monitoring an increase in the number of Russian troops near Kharkiv — the eastern city that lies just roughly 19 miles (30 km) from the Russian border. Russian officials have previously signaled plans to capture the city as part of creating a 'sanitary zone' that pushes Ukrainian missiles out of range.²
• Elsewhere, a 57-year-old Russian national living in Germany was arrested in connection with the murder of two Ukrainian servicemen after they were stabbed in a shopping center in the Bavaraia region on Saturday. The two Ukrainians, aged 36 and 23, were in Germany for medical rehabilitation, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.⁴

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Al Jazeera, ³Reuters and ⁴CNN.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by UKRINFORM. Because of Russia's current superiority in manpower and weapons, it's maximizing its efforts and is currently making some minor tactical gains. However, Moscow has not achieved an operational advantage and Ukraine maintains to hold the line, sending in reinforcements where there have been losses. Ukraine is also working hard to get weapons shipped as soon as possible.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The fate of Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is sealed. In the context of him seeking to continue this war, rather than negotiate for peace, he will have to explain these losses to his people — at which point he'll lose all legitimacy. From the Kremlin's perspective, the most prudent approach is to continue seeking to meet the aims of the Special Military Operation.

Predictions