Ukrainian Airforce: Don't Expect F-16s Before Year's End

Facts

• Despite Ukraine's hopes of receiving F-16s this year, the country's airforce spokesman has ruled out acquiring the advanced American fighter jet until 2024. "It is already obvious that we will not be able to protect Ukraine with F-16 fighters this autumn and winter," Yurii Ihnat said in a televised broadcast late on Wednesday.¹
• He added, "We had high hopes for this aircraft, believing it would become part of air defense and be able to protect us from Russian missile and drone terrorism." Nevertheless, plans to train Ukrainian pilots on the planes had "moved forward," he said.²
• US Pres. Biden denied repeated Ukrainian requests for the fighter jet for over a year before finally reversing course in May, stating that he supported the idea of training Ukrainian pilots on the aircraft, as well as the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine from other countries.³
• However, according to a CNN report earlier this month, European officials have yet to submit to the US a final training plan for pilots, which the US must reportedly authorize before training can begin.⁴
• In a further report in the Washington Post last week, officials said that just six Ukrainian pilots are expected to be trained on flying the F-16s by July 2024. US officials speaking to the publication said that only eight of 32 pilots put forward by Ukraine passed the requisite English proficiency test. It also reported that the six chosen to undergo the training must first attend four months of English lessons in Britain to learn additional terminology associated with the planes.³
• Meanwhile, John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman, was asked to comment on whether there had been any developments in approving the training program at a press briefing on Wednesday. He said, "I don't have an update for you on when it's going to start or where, but we are actively working with our European allies and friends to see if we can get that training started as soon as we can."⁵

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Ukrainska Pravda, ³The Washington Post, ⁴CNN, and ⁵United States Department of State.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by VOA. The US is doing everything it can to get F-16s in the hands of Ukraine as soon as possible. However, it's a complicated process that not only involves training pilots but also ensuring that the maintenance and logistics processes are well established. Nonetheless, the US is moving swiftly.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Atlantic Council. Russia's overwhelming air superiority has already caused Ukraine substantial problems in its counteroffensive. The longer that the US and international partners delay, the more Ukraine will suffer and the more emboldened Russian Pres. Putin will feel.

Predictions