Ukraine: Zelenskyy is 'Thinking' About Changing Military Leadership

Facts

• Following speculation last week as to whether Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy will fire the country's top general, the leader confirmed that he's 'thinking' about making changes to senior parts of the military.¹
• In an interview with Italian media published on Sunday, Zelenskyy said he's not only thinking about replacing Valerii Zaluzhnyi — the commander-in-chief — but other top leaders within the country. 'I have the rotation of several state leaders in mind,' he said, '[n]ot only in one sector, such as the military.'¹
• Zelenskyy added: 'If we want to win, we have to push everyone in the same direction and be convinced of victory ... That's why I'm talking about a reset, a replacement.'¹
• The comments appear to refer to an incident late last year when Zaluzhnyi — following a much-anticipated counteroffensive that failed to make the significant gains expected — asserted that the war had reached a stalemate, prompting Zelenskyy to publicly reject the remarks and reportedly triggering a rift between the two leaders.²
• However, Zelenskyy has also recently asserted that the war has reached an impasse. 'As far as the war on the ground is concerned, there is a stalemate,' he said, adding this was a fact caused by delays in new equipment. 'Over two years, the important thing is that we have managed to defend our state,' he said. Although he added that: '[a]bout 26% of the country's territory is still under occupation,' he said that Kyiv had stopped Russian forces making ' significant progress.'³
• Despite the claim, the most recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war, reported that Russia has continued to make confirmed gains in three areas of the frontline — namely, near Bakhmut, and in Avdiivka and Marinka in the Donetsk region.⁴

Sources: ¹Ukrainska Pravda (a), ²CNN, ³Ukrainska Pravda (b) and ⁴Understandingwar.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. After nearly two years of conflict, it is normal for a level of fatigue to set in. However, if Ukraine is to win, the nation must remain united and must stay determined to defeat Russia. As such, if any changes are made by Zelenskyy, it will simply be to reinvigorate the leadership and to give a greater chance to victory.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). If Zelenskyy ultimately fires Zaluzhnyi, it would spell very bad news for Ukraine. Not only would it confirm that there are major rifts in the country's leadership, but replacing one of the nation's most trusted and experienced leaders by someone less qualified is likely to lower morale for soldiers out in the battlefield.