Ukraine to Receive More Aid as Russia Advances in Key Town

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Facts

• Ahead of a NATO summit in Washington next week, member countries have agreed to provide Ukraine with €40B ($43B) in military aid next year, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.¹
• NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg had wanted to secure a sum of €100B ($108B) over multiple years — reportedly as a way of 'Trump-proofing' support for Ukraine — but military support beyond next year was not agreed.²
• Separately, during a visit from his Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umerov this week, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the US would soon provide Ukraine with an additional $2.3B in military assistance. He added that the US will 'take steps to build a bridge to NATO membership for Ukraine.'³
• That declaration prompted quick condemnation from over 60 analysts from US universities and think tanks on Wednesday, who signed an open letter cautioning against Ukraine's accession to the alliance.⁴
• On the ground, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that it captured the Novy district of Chasiv Yar — a key hilltop town near Bakhmut in Donetsk that, if captured, could pave the way for further Russian advances in the region.⁵
• A spokesman for Ukraine's military on Thursday confirmed that it withdrew from eastern parts of Chasiv Yar, stating that defensive positions were destroyed and that the command decided to pull back toward better-defended areas.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²www.euractiv.com, ³Associated Press, ⁴Politico, ⁵CBS and ⁶Alarabiya.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Atlantic Council. If the US does not provide a firm commitment to Ukraine on NATO membership, it signals to Putin that he is able to influence American foreign policy by launching an illegal invasion. The US must stick to its guns and realize that having Ukraine in NATO is the best way to protect American interests in the region.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Politico. Promising Ukraine NATO membership would only give Putin more reason to prolong the war and does nothing to serve Western interests. In fact, it would challenge NATO's Article 5 on collective defense and risk rupturing the whole military alliance, leaving NATO much weaker than where it started.

Predictions