Ukraine Shells Russia's Belgorod Region

Facts

• According to Russian state media, Ukraine reportedly fired more than 140 different munitions into Russia's Belgorod region over 24 hours ending on Thursday. Russia said it downed a fixed-wing drone near the village of Batratskaya in the Shebekinsky district, while Ukraine fired 31 artillery shells and 31 grenade launchers at the village of Shchetinovka.¹
• Russian media further stated that it shot down a Ukrainian fixed-wing drone over the village of Novaya Derevnya and two drones over the village of Solntsevka. Ukraine launched six mortar shells at the outskirts of the village of Kazachye-Rudchenskoye in the Borisovsky district, as well as 16 artillery and 20 mortar shells at the village of Dolgoye in the Valuysky district.¹
• Meanwhile, Ukraine's General Staff update on Thursday claimed Russia had lost 18 tanks, 43 armored personnel vehicles, and 42 artillery systems, bringing Russia's total lost tanks to 5,241 according to Kyiv. The Ukrainian report also stated Russia suffered 930 casualties over the day — bringing its total to 302,420.²
• In addition, a South Korean military official reportedly claimed that North Korea may have sent Moscow 2K containers of weapons and ammunition, including short-range ballistic missiles and artillery shells.²
• Russia reportedly launched its own series of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine, killing one in the eastern Kherson region and another in Nikopol. While Kyiv preemptively destroyed 18 out of the 20 recent Russian drone attacks, a Kremenchuk oil refinery in the central region of Poltava was set on fire.³
• Ukraine's commander in chief, Valerii Zaluzhny, stated Ukraine faced heavily fortified Russian positions with vast minefields — some that 'stretch back 20km (12 miles)' — and has received only 15% of the de-mining equipment requested from Western allies.⁴

Sources: ¹TASS, ²Newsweek, ³The Guardian and ⁴Business Insider.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Russia has endured substantial losses in the 20-month-long war in Ukraine, with over 300K casualties reported — numbers that are not only provided by Kyiv's military but are also corroborated by independent analysts and Western intelligence. The disparity in casualties between the two nations suggests Russia is now subjecting its infantrymen to almost certain death.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT. While there certainly have been high casualty numbers on both sides, the idea that Kyiv is outmaneuvering Moscow is just not true. Even Ukraine's so-called 'Iron General' admitted this week that, unless the West can provide them with some extraordinary technological advantage, the stalemate of trench warfare will continue — a reality that, although Zelenskly won't admit it, advantages Russia.

Predictions