Ukraine Sends Reinforcements as Russia Continues Avdiivka Press

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Facts

  • Ukrainian military officials conceded on Tuesday that they are struggling to keep their grip on the Donetsk city of Avdiivka, but said that reinforcements have been sent to aid its defense.1
  • Ivan Sekach, a spokesman for Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, said: 'We lack sufficient capabilities to maintain control of the city, but reinforcements are arriving, and we rely on friendly units.'1
  • With Ukraine facing shortages of both men and ammunition, the defense of Avdiivka will be one of the biggest challenges for the new military leadership that was appointed last week.2
  • Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly deployed roughly 42K troops near Avdiivka and Ukrainian officials said they were increasing their use of unmanned aerial drones — one of the key weapons being used by both sides in the war.3
  • While fighting has been reported inside the city for some weeks, recent reports suggest Russia continue to gain ground in Avdiivka in recent days. CNN, citing a mapping service, reported that Russian troops now control part of the railway line just north of the city's main station. They are also no more than several hundred meters away from the main supply route into the city, the publication said.3
  • Meanwhile, according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, which also tracks troop positions, it reported that Russia also made gains near the Donetsk city of Bakhmut and in western Luhansk, near the border with Kharkiv. In the meantime, it reported that Ukraine made gains near Donetsk city as well as in the western Zaporizhzhia region.4

Sources: 1Ukrainska Pravda, 2CNN (a), 3CNN (b) and 4Understandingwar.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The LA Times. These are now desperate times for Ukraine. Without additional US funding, Ukrainian soldiers may be left without missile defense rockets or basic ammunition to stave off Russian Pres. Putin's invasion. While Ukraine has successfully defended itself for two years, unless more funds are approved, the frontline situation might quickly erode. The US and Ukraine will then have to grapple with the real prospect of Russia winning this war. Congress needs to act immediately if this future is to be avoided.
  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by TASS. Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and it is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons and now that these weapons are running dry, it must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.

Predictions