Ukraine: Russian Drones Breach Kyiv's Missile Defenses

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Facts

  • Amid reports suggesting that Ukraine's missile defense stockpiles are running low, Russia launched yet another wave of kamikaze drones at Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions in the early hours of Friday. The attack was the sixth to target the Ukrainian capital this month.1
  • Vitali Klitschko, Kyiv's Mayor, said that a drone hit an apartment block south of the city center, triggering a fire that was quickly brought under control. Local officials added that a number of apartments were damaged between the 24th and 26th floors of the building. Two people were injured, one of whom was receiving treatment in hospital.1
  • A number of other buildings across Kyiv and its wider region were also damaged by falling drone debris. The country's air force said it shot down 24 of 28 drones across Kyiv and six other regions of Ukraine. Drone debris was also reported as damaging grain storage facilities in the Odesa region. Meanwhile, a direct hit was recorded at an 'infrastructure facility' in the Mykolaiv region, sparking a fire that's since been extinguished. There were no additional reports of injuries.2
  • While Russia has routinely pierced Ukraine's air defenses in other regions of the country, instances in Kyiv have been rare. With drones and missiles all typically shot down, Friday's attack was the first to successfully breach defenses in months.3
  • When the war broke out in Feb. 2022, Kyiv had been just as vulnerable as other Ukrainian cities to Russian aerial attacks. However, a flurry of sophisticated missile defense systems were soon provided by countries including the US and Germany, making the Ukrainian capital one of the safest places amid the conflict.4
  • Low Ukrainian stockpiles and recent attacks risk undermining Kyiv's reputation for safety. However, after attending a meeting with arms manufacturers earlier in the week, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the country's missile defenses will be strengthened, with another US-made Patriot system from Germany, alongside ammunition from a range of countries, coming Ukraine's way early in the New Year.5

Sources: 1Reuters, 2Ukrainska pravda, 3France 24, 4Politico and 5Kyivpost.

Narratives

  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Foreign affairs. The impact of the slowdown of Western arms to Ukraine is already being felt on the battlefield and observed in Ukraine's ability to defend itself from Russia's aerial attacks. While military aid is tied up in US Congress, Europe needs to step up and give Ukraine all the weapons it needs — not just enough to survive, but enough to put Russian Pres. Putin on the back foot and force him into negotiations.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Attacks on Ukraine are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks, as well as the mistaken belief — being propped up by Western administrations — that the country can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Predictions