Ukraine: Russia Presses Forward in the East

Facts

• As the Russia-Ukraine war creeps toward the two-year mark, Russian forces continue to make confirmed territorial advances in Ukraine, according to the latest battlefield analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). While fighting continues to be reported across the frontline — from Kharkiv in the northeast; down through the Donbas; and onwards southwest through Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — Russia's reported advances largely come in the east.¹
• After the waning of Ukraine's counteroffensive last year, Russia launched new military operations in October — including pouring in an estimated 40K troops near the Donetsk city of Avdiivka. By the following month, Russia had encircled the city from three directions and was closing in.²
• Since then, Russia has launched multiple waves of attacks on the city, footage of which has occasionally been captured and released by Ukrainian forces. The latest drone footage released by Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade on Saturday shows Ukraine responding to advances of Russian tank columns, resulting in heavy Russian losses. Both Russia and Ukraine are believed to have lost thousands of troops in the months of fighting for Avdiivka.³
• Nonetheless, according to the latest analysis from ISW, Russian forces continued to make confirmed advances south and southwest of Avdiivka in recent days. ISW also reported that Russian troops appeared to be fighting inside the city for the first time, though the think tank added it has not seen any visual confirmation of this.⁴
• Elsewhere in Ukraine, after Russia captured the village of Krokhmalne in Kharkiv over the weekend, ISW reported that Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces made additional gains in the region. However, ISW again said it didn't have geolocated footage to verify the claims.¹
• Meanwhile, late last week, Russia took control of the village of Vesele — located 12 miles (20 km) northeast of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk.⁵

Sources: ¹Understandingwar, ²Newsweek (a), ³Newsweek (b), ⁴Ukrainska Pravda and ⁵The Moscow Times.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Russia's troops are poorly trained and poorly coordinated. For this reason, they've largely been unable to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from their positions. This is best shown in the Kherson region, but it's also largely true of the Russian war effort elsewhere. Russia's small gains so far have been insignificant in the wider scope of the conflict.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Sonar21. Despite what's reported in the media, all is not well in Ukraine. For one, it has lost virtually a whole generation of men. If they're not still on the frontlines and haven't already been killed, they've fled the country to avoid the fighting. Now, Russia is making sweeping advances and thousands more Ukrainian troops will perish without good reason. Ukraine needs to negotiate for peace to avoid this unnecessary sacrifice of men.

Predictions