Ukraine Official: Russia Intensifies Assault on Avdiivka

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Facts

  • Russian forces are intensifying their push to capture the Donetsk city of Avdiivka, Vitalii Barabash, head of Ukraine's military administration in the city, said in a broadcast on Tuesday.1
  • 'Things in the Avdiivka sector have become even tougher,' Barabash told the Ukrainian outlet Espreso TV. 'The intensity of clashes has been increasing for some time. The Russians have opened up two more sectors from which they have begun making assaults. In the direction of Donetsk [city] ... and in the so-called industrial zone. The enemy is attempting to storm the city from all directions.'2
  • After Russia launched a major offensive on Avdiivka in October, it has since poured in at least 40K troops and surrounded the city from three directions. Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy last month labeled the situation around Avdiivka — sometimes referred to as the Gateway to Donetsk — as 'particularly tough.'3
  • In an analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-affiliated military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war, the organization reported on Sunday that Russia had continued to make confirmed gains near Avdiivka, including the capture of a railway station and an industrial zone in the city's outskirts. ISW reported that battles are ongoing for the Avdiivka Coke Plant, a facility in the city's northwest.4
  • The analysis also reported that Russia made confirmed gains elsewhere on the frontlines — including the Luhansk region where Russia was said to be advancing near Kupyansk. According to ISW, heavy fighting continued to be reported in Kherson, western Zaporizhzhia, and the Donetsk city of Bakhmut.4
  • In the most recent report from ISW, the think tank said heavy fighting continued near the cities of Avdiivka and Bakhmut in Donetsk, as well as in Kherson, western Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk, but reported that neither Russia nor Ukraine had made confirmed advances in territory in the last 24 hours.5
  • This comes as a storm and severe winter weather lashed large swaths of Russia and Ukraine, dumping as much as ten inches of snow in some areas with millions of people on both sides left without electricity. In Ukraine, at least 10 people were killed and 23 were injured — most of them in the Odesa region. Hurricane-strength winds and flooding were also reported in Russia's Black Sea regions of Krasnodar, Rostov, and Dagestan, as well as in Crimea and the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Four people were killed in Russian-controlled territories.6

Sources: 1Euromaidan Press, 2Reuters, 3Newsweek, 4Understandingwar (a), 5Understandingwar (b) and 6Independent.

Narratives

  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by BNN. As another winter approaches Ukraine, it's clear that Russia will once again use the despicable tactic of bombing the country's civilian energy facilities as it did last year, making rolling blackouts a feature of daily life in Ukraine. The country's better prepared to deal with such attacks than 12 months ago — but Ukrainians should still expect to see Russian Pres. Putin's attacks coming.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and a mindset that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Predictions