Ukraine Makes Renewed Push for NATO Membership

Facts

• Ukrainian officials made a renewed push to convince allies in NATO to consider the war-torn country's invitation to the military alliance late this week.^[1]
• In a letter to foreign ministers of NATO nations ahead of their meeting on Dec. 3-4, excerpts of which were published by Reuters on Friday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said: 'The invitation should not be seen as an escalation.'^[1]
• 'On the contrary, with a clear understanding that Ukraine's membership in NATO is inevitable, Russia will lose one of its main arguments for continuing this unjustified war,' he added.^[1]
• Last month, an invitation to NATO was central to Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 'victory plan.' However, according to reports at the time, NATO's key members — including the US and Germany — were not convinced about the idea, particularly with Ukraine's conflict with Russia ongoing.^[2]
• On Friday, Zelenskyy gave an interview to Britain's Sky News in which he again pitched the idea. 'If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,' he said. 'That's what we need to do fast, and then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically.'^[3]
• The developments come amid a deteriorating battlefield situation for Ukraine, with incremental Russian advances continuing to be reported across the frontlines, including in the Russian Kursk region. AP News has reported that Ukraine is facing a growing desertion problem in its military ranks, with an estimated 50K soldiers going AWOL this year.^[4][5]
• Meanwhile, in an attack of 90 missiles and 100 drones, Russia again targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, alongside military sites, late this week. Nearly a million Ukrainian households were left without power, Ukrainian officials said.^[6]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Politico, ^[3]Guardian, ^[4]Newsweek, ^[5]Associated Press (a) and ^[6]Associated Press (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politico. The US and Germany have been Ukraine's biggest supporters, but it must be understood that its immediate invitation into NATO is simply not possible while the conflict is ongoing. This would lead to a wider NATO-Russia war that could escalate further.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. If Ukraine becomes a properly confirmed member of NATO, it will show Russian Pres. Putin that he will be lost from a geopolitical point of view. As Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said, Russia must recognize that Europe has borders and independent states, and everyone has the right to choose their own future.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Dragging Ukraine into the NATO military alliance is what started this whole conflict in the first place, particularly NATO's cultivation of Ukrainian nationalism that resulted in a violation of rights against the country's Russian-speaking citizens. Without eliminating the root cause of the conflict, it's impossible to achieve a fair settlement.

Predictions