Ukraine Makes First Acknowledgement of Kursk Offensive

Facts

  • For the first time since launching an offensive into Russia's Kursk region earlier this week, Ukraine acknowledged its role in the assault on Thursday, justifying it as a means of achieving peace in its country.[1]
  • In an interview with domestic television, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said: 'Do they [Russia] respond to anything other than fear? No, this needs to be understood. Russia sees any compromise as a sign of weakness and readiness to submit. Negotiations can only be productive if they understand the war is not going according to their script.'[2]
  • Later on Telegram, he added: 'Russia has consistently believed that prohibitive legal norms do not apply to it, allowing it to attack neighboring countries with impunity while hypocritically demanding the inviolability of its own territories. But war has its rules, and the aggressor always reaps the consequences.'[2][3]
  • Meanwhile, without specific mention of Kursk, Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Thursday: 'Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals. And achieving the goals at war was not our choice. Russia brought the war to our land, and it should feel what it has done.'[4]
  • In another apparent reference to Kursk without mentioning it by name, Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, posted a picture of himself alongside troops, stating he was 'working at the starting point,' without providing additional details.[5]
  • In its latest analysis, the Institute for the Study of War — which tracks troop movements in the conflict — cited Russian military bloggers in stating that Ukrainian troops advanced as far as 22 miles (35km) into Russian territory, but added that 'Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory.'[6]

Sources: [1]Guardian, [2]Odessa, [3]Telegram, [4]President, [5]Ukrainska Pravda and [6]Understandingwar.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Hill. The US supports Ukraine's right to defend itself from Russian aggression, including if it feels it has to attack inside Russia's Kursk region to achieve its war aims. These attacks are not escalatory.
  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Odessa. Russia sees any form of compromise as a sign of weakness. Therefore, it must be made to feel that the war is not going according to its plans for peace to be eventually achieved in Ukraine.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. This is a large-scale provocation from Ukraine who are indiscriminately firing weapons at civilian buildings and residential homes. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin is meeting with military heads to ensure that the threat is eliminated.

Predictions