Ukraine Launches 'Massive' Assault in Southern Zaporizhzhia

Facts

• As the fallout from a dam collapse in Kherson region continued on Thursday, Ukraine reportedly launched a "massive" assault on the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region in the country's south over the past day.¹
• Vladimir Rogov, head of the Russian administration in the Zaporizhzhia region, said he couldn't remember any "such massive night attacks" having taken place before, adding he believed that Ukraine must have "thought that they could shield themselves from our aviation at night and that our aircraft would operate less efficiently."¹
• Rogov said that multiple waves of attacks were launched near the cities of Tokmak and Orikhiv overnight, but alleged they were repelled by Russian defenses. "They have sustained huge casualties on minefields, from air and artillery strikes and they simply show disregard for losses and throw troops into action wave after wave," he said.¹
• Earlier in the year, an intelligence briefing from Britain's defense ministry said that Russia had taken a number of steps to bolster defensive fortifications in the Zaporizhzhia region, adding it suggested "commanders" were "highly likely preoccupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action" in the area. It also said: "A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia's 'land bridge' linking Russia's Rostov region and Crimea."²
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials and media made no mention of an assault on the Zaporizhzhia region on Thursday. However, Yuriy Malashko, head of Ukraine's administration in the region, said there was extensive artillery shelling by Russian forces over the past day, adding that one civilian was injured.³
• Nonetheless, Julian Röpcke, a journalist for the German publication Bild, confirmed that Ukraine had launched an offensive in Zaporizhzhia via Twitter, saying that, "Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 [tanks] are advancing in different directions south of Orikhiv and are facing stiff Russian resistance from minefields and artillery."⁴

Sources: ¹TASS, ²UK Defence Journal, ³UKRINFORM, and ⁴Romania Posts English.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Despite the efforts of 1.5K specially trained Ukrainian reserves, Russian forces detected the enemy's movements and utilized artillery, aircraft, and anti-tank resources to launch a preemptive assault. This attempt to break through Russian lines has only resulted in significant losses for Kyiv.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Economist. Claims that Moscow has dealt huge casualties and losses to Ukraine's troops are implausible. The movements being made against Russian forces mark a turning point in Ukraine's offensive operations that are not just isolated to the South, but expand across the front. Reasonable progress is being made by Kyiv's forces through these operations.

Predictions