Ukraine Launches Drone Attack on Crimea

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Facts

  • Overnight on Monday, a drone attack on Crimea struck the city of Dzhankoi in the north of the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. While Ukraine hasn't claimed responsibility, its defense ministry alleged that Russian Kalibr missiles intended for its Black Sea Fleet were destroyed as they were being transported by rail.1
  • Russian media denied the presence of military targets near the strike and said only civilian infrastructure was damaged — including a shop, a house, and a school dormitory. Local officials said one civilian was injured and alleged that the drones were packed with shrapnel. Neither the Ukrainian nor Russian account could be independently confirmed.2
  • Meanwhile, coinciding with China's Xi Jinping visit to Russia, the prime minister of rival power Japan, Fumio Kishida, made an unannounced trip to Ukraine on Tuesday to meet with Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy.3
  • This came as Zelenskyy on Monday thanked the US for its latest $350M military aid package, consisting largely of ammunition and rockets for High Mobility Artillery Rockets Systems. Zelenskyy also hailed the €2B ($2.14B) ammunition plan approved by the EU on Monday.4
  • Elsewhere, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's ambassador to the UN, told a press conference on Monday that Russia plans to hold an informal meeting of the UN Security Council in April to discuss what he described as "the real situation" of Ukrainian children taken to Russia amid the war — an issue that gained the spotlight last week when the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants to Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin and another official over the matter.5
  • Nebenzia said the issue of the children was "totally overblown" and that they were taken to Russia "simply because we wanted to spare them of the danger that military activities may bring." When asked if Russia would return the children, he said: "When conditions are safe, of course. Why not?"5

Sources: 1Guardian, 2TASS, 3Associated Press (a), 4UKRINFORM, and 5Associated Press (b).

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Guardian. The attack on Crimea — illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 — not only struck a legitimate military target, destroying cruise missiles to be used by Russia in its illegal invasion of Ukraine, but it also served another blow to Putin and exposed major weaknesses in Moscow's defense systems.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT. Russia's air defense was able to successfully counter Ukraine's attack on Crimea, which hit civilian targets only — damaging a shop, a house, and part of a school. The people of Crimea overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining the Russian Federation in 2014, and these types of assaults can't be tolerated.

Predictions