Ukraine: Hungary Blocks €50B in EU Funding Amidst Membership Talks

Facts

• Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked a €50B ($54B) aid package for Ukraine at the EU summit in Brussels late Thursday (local time). This came hours after the EU leaders decided to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and to grant Georgia EU candidate status.¹
• Before the summit's start, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Kyiv completed four mandatory reforms while recognizing anti-corruption efforts and recent amendments to Ukraine's minorities law. Granted candidate status in 2022 along with Moldova, Ukraine was given seven reforms as a precondition to start accession talks, with the move being hailed by Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy as: 'A victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe.'²
• Following Hungary's veto, Charles Michel, the European Council President, said that negotiations on the financial package, which requires unanimity, would resume early next year. Orbán also objected to accession talks with Kyiv, but left the negotiating room, allowing the other 26 EU leaders to reach a consensus decision.³
• For weeks, Orbán has insisted he would block the EU opening membership talks with Ukraine. In the days prior to Thursday's EU summit in Brussels, EU Council Pres. Charles Michel, as well as the leaders of France and Germany — Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz — all held last-minute meetings with Orbán in an effort to sway him.⁴
• Orbán's veto followed the European Commission's decision on Wednesday to release €10.2 B ($11B) of frozen funds to Hungary after it found that Budapest had met key conditions to strengthen the judiciary's independence — a move that some critics suggested was a bribe. However, due to EU complaints in other areas such as public procurement, prosecution procedures, and corruption, €21B ($22.9B) of funds remain blocked.⁵
• On Friday, Orban linked his approval of the Ukraine funding package to the release of the remaining EU funds for his country. On the two-day European Council summit he argued that if the EU wants to change its budget law, Hungary must receive 'not half, then a quarter, but it must get the whole thing.'⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²The kyiv independent, ³New York Times, ⁴Guardian, ⁵Dw.com and ⁶Barrons.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The kyiv independent. The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is historic. Unfortunately, that Orbán vetoed the €50B Ukraine aid package against the rest of the EU proves yet again that the Hungarian nationalist leader is standing not on the side of democracy and freedom, but is committing blackmail aligned with the geostrategic goals of the Kremlin. The EU must not allow itself to be bullied by Orbán, who wants to prevent a democratic and Western-oriented Ukraine, as this would undermine his autocratic project.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Insider paper. It's remarkable that the EU is opening accession negotiations with Kyiv and is putting together a huge aid package while withholding tens of billions from Hungary — which it did before in 2022. To cynically bribe Budapest's approval, only €10B was released, which Hungary is entitled to anyway, while Ukraine is to receive €50B. Hungary has the right to insist on the release of all funds to approve the Ukraine aid package. EU leaders should bear in mind that Hungary still has several options to block Ukraine's accession process and the road ahead could rightly be paved with Hungarian vetoes.

Predictions