Ukraine Forms Eight 'Storm' Brigades for Spring Counteroffensive

Facts

• Ukraine's interior ministry said on Tuesday that it had "fully formed" eight new "storm" brigades, made up of 40K soldiers, for fighting in its spring counteroffensive amid speculation about its timing and whether it can succeed. Ihor Klymenko, the interior minister, said that the troops need an additional two to three weeks of training before engaging in "appropriate offensive assault operations."¹
• Ukraine launched the recruitment drive for the new brigades — collectively named "Border of Steel" — at the beginning of February. Many of the troops were trained by Western countries outside Ukraine; the brigades were titled Hurricane, Spartan, Chervona Kalyna, Frontier, Rage, Azov, and Kara Dag — a mountain in Crimea.²
• Last month, a leaked Pentagon document, dated Feb. 23, revealed how the US assessed Ukraine's progress in building 12 new "combat credible" brigades — nine to be trained by the US and Western partners and three by Ukraine. The document, marked "top secret," said Kyiv faced "force generation and sustainment shortfalls," and was therefore only likely to achieve "modest territorial gains," adding that Ukraine could fall "well short" of its aims.³
• Pres. Zelenskyy addressed the leaks from the Pentagon in an interview with the Washington Post published on Tuesday. He said that he hadn't had any conversations with the White House over the documents, stating it wouldn't be beneficial for the reputations of the US or Ukraine.⁴
• Asked whether the Pentagon leaks strained relationships with the US, Zelenskyy said: "I cannot risk our state," suggesting that it wasn't worth damaging US support for Kyiv.⁵
• Meanwhile, in anticipation of respective counter offensives, Russia and Ukraine both continued to escalate attacks. Russian missiles were again fired at Kyiv, though were again prevented by air defenses. However, three civilians were killed in attacks in Kherson while nine civilians were injured in attacks in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine struck Russia's supply lines, and Kremlin also accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin.⁶

Sources: ¹Guardian (a), ²Firstpost, ³Guardian (b), ⁴Washington Post, ⁵Guardian (b), and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by DW. Notwithstanding the new recruits, Ukraine has amassed a lot of "heavy metal" from NATO ahead of its counter-offensive. Much of that equipment hasn't previously been used by Ukraine, meaning they'll have the benefits of modern battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, as well as America's Patriot missile defense system. With a lot riding on the counteroffensive, Ukraine looks poised to retake its territory.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Politico. While Ukraine's officials make the final preparations for their spring attack, they'll be acutely aware that they need to make big territorial gains and that the fate of this war may well hinge on this counteroffensive. More for geopolitical reasons than anything else. In the halls of Washington and European capitals, Western allies are preparing exit strategies and will need to see results if support for Ukraine continues.

Predictions