Ukraine Drones Hit Oil, Ammo Depot in Crimea

Facts

• A Ukrainian drone strike at an ammunition depot in the central part of the Crimean Peninsula prompted authorities to evacuate everyone in a five-km (3.1-mile) radius, Governor Sergey Aksyonov said Saturday.¹
• The governor added that due to the attack at the depot, which sparked an explosion, rail traffic was suspended to "minimize risks."²
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces appeared to confirm the attack, claiming they "had destroyed an oil depot" and a Russian military warehouse in Oktyabrske, a settlement in the Krasnogvardiyskyi district.³
• Saturday's strike comes five days after Kyiv hit an essential bridge linking Crimea to Russia and after Moscow terminated the Black Sea grain deal.⁴
• Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims the bridge was a legitimate target because it was a military supply route for Russia, adding, "This is the route used to feed the war with ammunition and this is being done on a daily basis."⁵
• The $3.6B Kerch Bridge, the longest in Europe, is an essential land link to Crimea and crucial for Russia's military operations in southern Ukraine.¹

Sources: ¹Washington Post, ²Arab News, ³UKRINFORM, ⁴Associated Press, and ⁵CNBC.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Guardian. This was a justified attack to weaken Russia's supply lines to the south of Ukraine. As Kyiv has every right to dislodge Russian forces from its territory, it must continue to strike Crimea to put Moscow in a vulnerable position and bring the months-long war to a successful conclusion.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Drone strikes on Crimea are nothing short of terrorist attacks, as the peninsula is legally part of the Russian Federation. It's foolish to believe that Moscow's control of Crimea can be threatened; in fact, any attacks on the peninsula would be treated as attacks on Russian sovereignty and entail immediate retaliatory strikes.

Predictions