Ukraine Counteroffensive Firmly Under Way

Facts

• Although Ukraine is maintaining operational silence, multiple reports now confirm the country has launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive — attempting to claw back territory taken by Russian troops in the last 15 months of fighting in a war that has claimed heavy casualties on both sides.¹
• Ukrainian mechanized brigades were reported to have launched multiple assaults in the past week, with heavy fighting reported in and around Bakhmut — the Donetsk city recently captured by Russian forces — as well as in the Russian-controlled territory of neighboring Zaporizhzhia, coveted by Ukraine as its capture could be the first step in severing Russia's "land bridge" to Crimea.²
• Ukrainian officials said they advanced 1.6K meters in Bakhmut, while the situation in Zaporizhzhia, where Russia reportedly offered stiff resistance, was more mixed. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank, reported in an assessment earlier this week that "Russian forces apparently defended against this attack...and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8."²
• Meanwhile, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin addressed Ukraine's counteroffensive on Friday. "We can clearly say the offensive has started, as indicated by the Ukrainian army's use of strategic reserves," he said. "But the Ukrainian troops haven’t achieved their stated tasks in a single area of fighting." He further claimed: "We are seeing that the Ukrainian regime’s troops are suffering significant losses."³
• On Saturday, both militaries continued to conduct attacks, with Russia launching a missile and drone strike on the Odesa region. Ukraine said it shot down all eight drones and two missiles, adding that one struck the coast. However, falling debris injured three and sparked a fire in an apartment block, killing three civilians and injuring 26 more. Russia also struck a Ukrainian airfield in the Poltava region.⁴
• Ukraine, meanwhile, said it launched attacks in 18 locations in the past 24 hours. Heavy Ukrainian artillery fire continued to be reported in the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, where three civilians were reported injured. Crimea's Russia-appointed governor also reported that two Ukrainian missiles were shot down over the peninsula. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian drone struck an oil facility in Russia's Kursk region, but there were no reports of damage or casualties.⁵

Sources: ¹NBC, ²POLITICO, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴UKRINFORM (a), and ⁵UKRINFORM (b).

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrinform. Over the past 48 hours, Ukraine has launched significant military operations in several sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine. In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defenses. In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower, but this is a promising start to its long-awaited counteroffensive.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russia is successfully repelling Ukraine's counteroffensive. The country did indeed launch multiple waves of assaults, but Russian forces inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. Not only were thousands of troops killed, but Ukraine also lost hundreds of vehicles and other military hardware. While Ukraine's efforts are still early, its counteroffensive likely won't see success.

Predictions