Ukraine Claims Liberation of Four Towns, Territorial Gains

Facts

• As Ukraine's counteroffensive continued through the weekend and entered its second week on Monday, Ukraine claimed to have made territorial gains on multiple fronts, including the recapture of four villages in southwest Donetsk.¹
• Ukraine also claimed to have made further advances around the flanks of Bakhmut — the Donetsk city recently captured by Russian troops. It also appeared to be making gains in the neighboring region of Zaporizhzhia where heavy fighting kicked off the counteroffensive early last week.²
• According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-affiliated military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war, "Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11." It added, "Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay."³
• The Institute said that Russian military bloggers likely referred to Ukrainian advances as "grey [sic] zones" in order to downplay Ukrainian territorial gains. It added: "Ukrainian forces liberated several towns, but claims of a Ukrainian 'breakthrough' are premature at this time."³
• Meanwhile, in its latest statement on Sunday, Russia's defense ministry made no mention of any claimed Ukrainian gains. A spokesman said, "During the last 24-hour period, Ukrainian armed formations continued unsuccessful attempts at offensive operations in the south Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk directions."⁴
• On Monday, almost a week after the Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed in the Kherson region, Ukraine accused Russia of bringing down another, much smaller, dam — this time in the western Donetsk region. The dam, along the Mokri Yaly River, is close to Ukrainian advances in western Donetsk.⁵

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²UKRINFORM, ³Understandingwar, ⁴TASS, and ⁵Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. Early into its counteroffensive, Ukraine has made small but promising gains, moving the front lines deeper into Russian territory across a number of fronts. Nevertheless, despite the early victories, the long-term success of any Ukrainian counteroffensive is yet far from certain.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. As before, Ukrainian forces continued to launch multiple attacks on Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. However, as before, Russia successfully repelled all attacks and inflicted serious damage on Ukraine's armed forces and military equipment.

Predictions