Ukraine Claims Gains Near Bakhmut

Facts

• Ukraine's armed forces have claimed gains of 1.2 sq miles (3 sq km) near the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region over the past week.¹
• Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, said on Monday: "Ukrainian defenders are advancing on the southern flank of the city of Bakhmut, and liberated another 3 sq km there last week. Together, we can say that 43 sq km [16.6 sq miles] has been liberated around Bakhmut."¹
• Maliar added that the situation in the Kharkiv region, namely near the city of Kupiansk, remained "difficult." She said: "The enemy is not leaving plans to move forward, the enemy is pulling up additional forces. We are confident in our defenders, but it is very difficult for them there and the enemy is not advancing there."²
• Maliar also acknowledged fierce fighting taking place near the city of Kremmina in the Luhansk region. "The enemy is trying to drive us out of the Kreminna-Bilohorivka positions previously occupied by our troops," she said. "The enemy is having no success, but the fighting there is also very fierce."¹
• Meanwhile, in the south, Maliar said there were no significant changes in the past week. "We should not underestimate the enemy," she said. "We should all be patient and support our armed forces."²

Sources: ¹Ukrainska Pravda and ²The Straits Times.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Despite fierce fighting, Ukrainian forces continue to drive back Russian troops and are gradually expelling them out of the territory of Ukraine. Fighting will not cease until Ukraine accomplishes this aim.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Washington Post. Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine is able to penetrate Russia's multi layered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?

Predictions