Ukraine Claims Commander of Black Sea Fleet Killed in Crimea Strike

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Facts

• On Monday, Ukraine claimed to have killed 34 officers — including Viktor Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet — in its missile strike on Russia's navy headquarters in Crimea last week.¹
• Ukraine's Special Operation Forces further claimed that 105 people were injured in the strike on Sevastopol. However, Ukraine provided no evidence for its claims, which were vastly different from how the event was portrayed in Russian reports.²
• Russia's defense ministry initially reported that one serviceman was killed in the attack, but later issued a clarification to state that he was missing. [Nonetheless, Russia's defense ministry has routinely minimized losses and adverse news throughout the conflict.]³
• Meanwhile, Ukraine's claims are a steep escalation from what its own officials earlier claimed. On Saturday, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated that at least nine people had been killed and 16 others were wounded; without naming Sokolov, Budanov claimed that Alexander Romanchuk, a Russian general, was 'in a very serious condition' after the attack.¹
• While the death of the Black Sea Fleet commander remains unconfirmed, the Guardian's analysis suggests that considering Sokolov’s seniority, it is not likely that the Kremlin would be able to hide his death for an extended duration.¹
• On Tuesday, according to reporting from Reuters, Sokolov was seen attending a meeting with other Russian military leaders via videoconferencing facilities — seemingly dispelling Ukrainian claims. However, the date of the footage could not be confirmed.⁴

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Associated Press, ³Tass and ⁴Reuters.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. As a result of Ukraine's attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, one serviceman was reported missing, but there were no reports of fatalities. Ukraine's claims are incorrect.

Predictions