Ukraine Claims Attack on Moscow, Russia Warns of Retaliation

Facts

• Ukraine has claimed responsibility for three drone attacks in which two buildings were hit in Moscow and a munition depot was targeted in Crimea, the Peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. While Moscow called the attacks "yet another use of terrorist methods." A Ukrainian defense official reportedly said it was a "special operation" carried out by its military intelligence.¹
• Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said at least two nonresidential buildings were hit but that there was no "serious damage or casualties." One of the buildings is about a block away from the Russian National Defense Management Center, which is used to conduct "centralized combat management of the Russian armed forces."²
• In Crimea, Moscow-appointed leader Sergei Aksyonov said they ordered the evacuation of several villages within a three-mile radius of the attack, adding that the military also shot down or jammed 11 other drones. In response, Russia targeted the port infrastructure along the Danube River in southern Ukraine with exploding drones, injuring four workers and destroying a grain hangar.³
• After pulling out of its grain deal with Kyiv, an agreement brokered by the UN and Turkey a year ago to allow Ukrainian farm goods to be shipped safely during the war, Moscow over the past week has attacked Odesa's Black Sea port and food storage — destroying tons of food and damaging a cathedral and other historic buildings.⁴
• The new NATO-Ukraine Council, created earlier this month, will meet Wednesday to discuss Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal. The end of the deal, which had allowed Ukraine to ship 30M tons of grain through the Black Sea, means both Moscow and Kyiv will now consider any cargo vessel in the area as carrying military cargo.²
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Deputy Minister Hanna Maliar said that 35 sq km (21.7 mi) of land in the Bakhmut area has been freed from Russian forces. She added that Russian troops are largely focused on Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka and that the "fiercest battles are raging near Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Kurdiumivka."⁵

Sources: ¹CBS, ²New York Times, ³FOX News, ⁴NPR Online News, and ⁵CNBC.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT. Ukraine, in a desperate attempt to show strength in the face of its failed counteroffensive, has chosen to target vulnerable civilian sites in Moscow. Though Russia continues to effortlessly block most of these drone strikes — as shown by its defense of the Crimean ammunition depot — the Russian people should expect more cowardly attacks. It's only right that Moscow responds forcefully to protect its civilian population.
• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Newsweek. If anyone is failing it's Vladimir Putin. His goal from the beginning was to erase Ukraine from the map and claim it as his own; but in reality, he has only obtained a few parts of Eastern Ukraine and is now seeing it stripped away from him. Kyiv is already regaining its territory and, since its counteroffensive has only just begun, Putin should be worried about his chances in the coming months.

Predictions