Ukraine Alters Military Plans in Wake of Pentagon Leaks

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Facts

  • In the wake of classified US documents being leaked and circulated on the internet in the past several days, Ukraine has modified some of its war plans, a source close to Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN on Monday.1
  • The documents divulged perceived areas of Ukrainian vulnerability and weakness, including shortages in weaponry and ammunition as well as scarcity in air defense coverage over certain regions. The leaks also detailed the sizes and locations of troop deployments and their combat readiness, in addition to what weapons and training they were due to receive.2
  • When asked to comment if Russia was responsible for circulating the documents, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: 'I cannot comment on this in any way. You and I know that there is in fact a tendency to always blame everything on Russia. It is, in general, a disease.'3
  • Some military and intelligence analysts have suggested that if Russia had been first to receive the leaked documents, it would not make sense to publicize that fact to their enemies, as it would force a change of plans and make any hard-won intelligence worthless.4
  • Meanwhile, Peskov added that there were no plans for an Easter ceasefire at this stage; Russia and Ukraine, as predominantly Orthodox countries, will mark Easter this coming Sunday, April 16. 'So far, there haven't been any initiatives on this matter but our Holy Week has just begun,' Peskov said.5
  • Elsewhere, Belarus Pres. Alexander Lukashenko met with Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday. In the meeting, Lukashenko reportedly called on Russia to provide his country with formal security guarantees: 'In general, it sounded at the talks [with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin] that in the case of aggression against Belarus, the Russian Federation would protect Belarus as its own territory. These are the kind of security [guarantees] we need.'6

Sources: 1CNN, 2Washington Post, 3Us news & world report, 4Global times, 5News.az and 6Msn.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by CNN. While it's understood that the US has one of the most sophisticated intelligence apparatuses in the world, the leaked documents provide a rare glimpse into how the country spies on its allies and foes alike. The revelations are likely to anger some of its closest partners at a time when cohesion is badly needed.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Us news & world report. While the leaks may show some accurate information, this bears the hallmarks of an American disinformation operation. This release was created to prompt confusion among Russian ranks ahead of Ukraine's plans to launch a spring counteroffensive.

Predictions