Ukraine: Air Force Says Russian Attacks Are Stretching Defenses

Facts

• Weeks of escalating Russian missile and drone attacks are stretching Ukraine's air defense resources, Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for Ukraine's Air Force said in a nationally broadcast interview on Tuesday.¹
• 'Intense Russian air attacks force us to use a corresponding amount of air defense means,' Ihnat said. 'That's why we need more of them, as Russia keeps increasing its (air) attack capabilities.' He added that Ukraine is completely dependent on its Western allies for air defense missiles, both for Western- and Soviet-made systems.¹
• Earlier in the day — amid a weakened energy infrastructure following Russian strikes, and temperatures dropping as low as 5 °F (-15 °C) in many parts of the country — Ukraine's primary power provider Ukrenergo said that upwards of 1K towns and villages across Ukraine were without power, urging those with electricity to save it where they can. Ukrenergo said the disruption was in large part driven by increased consumption, which had risen by 5.8% from the previous day.²
• The sub-freezing temperatures also struck large parts of Russia. On Jan. 4, the heating system burst at the Klimovsk Specialized Ammunition Plant in the town of Podolsk, roughly 30 miles (48 km) south of central Moscow. Since then, an estimated one in four Russians in the wider Moscow region has been without heating, electricity, or both. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin ordered the plant to be nationalized on Tuesday and electricity outages were also reported in other Russian cities including St Petersburg, Rostov, and Volgograd, among others.³
• Volatile Northern Hemisphere winter weather patterns in an El Nino year can potentially impact wheat crops in Russia, stress European energy markets, and cause major disruptions in the US (as shown by winter storm warnings issued in as many as 22 states).⁴
• Elsewhere in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite the winter weather, Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Tuesday that they repelled as many as 64 Russian attacks across seven regions of Ukraine in the past 24 hours of fighting. 'The operational situation in Ukraine's east and south remains difficult,' the General Staff update said.⁵

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Reuters, ³Newsweek, ⁴Barchart.com and ⁵Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Associated Press. Russia's continuing missile and drone attacks are continuing to deplete Ukraine's missile defenses. Ukraine is dependent on its allies for munitions for these defenses, so it's imperative that fresh supplies are delivered imminently.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Reuters. Just as it has done throughout the conflict, the US has been in close contact with its Ukrainian partners, working together to address challenges. On Monday, the White House met with leaders from various defense and technology industries to plug Ukraine's air defense deficiencies, as well as solutions to counter Russia's unmanned aerial systems.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. These are hard times in Russia, but even Europe's leading economies have struggled in recent times. What's important is that we are on the rise, and they are on the decline. Because as we show the world we can be fully self-sufficient, Europe's problems are only becoming more entrenched.

Predictions