Ukraine Advances in Kursk, Russia Heaps Pressure on Ukraine's East

Facts

• Ukrainian forces have made more advances in Russia's Kursk region, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Monday. However, ISW — a US military think that tracks troop positions in the conflict — also reported that Russian forces advanced in a number of salients in Ukraine's east.^[1]
• According to ISW, geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian troops had advanced in Vishnevka. It also cited Russian military bloggers who reported that Ukraine made advances near Russkoye Porechnoye, Agronom, and Spalnoye. Ukraine also reportedly destroyed a third bridge in the region.^[1]
• Meanwhile, citing Russian sources, ISW reported that Russian troops had made gains near the cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, and started fighting within Chasiv Yar over the past day. It also reported Russian gains in the regions of Luhansk and Kharkiv.^[1]
• On Tuesday, Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces had taken control of the village of Niu-York in Donetsk. Earlier, Ukrainian sources conceded that Russia had captured three settlements near Toresk — Mezhove, Skuchne, and Zhuravka — but said that fighting for Niu-York was ongoing.^[2][3]
• Prior to the latest reports, Ukrainian military officials, speaking to the Financial Times, said the country had moved as many as 10K of its most elite troops from Donetsk and Kharkiv to fight in the Kursk offensive. They said that Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk were 'showing cracks' even prior to the offensive.^[4]
• It was hoped Ukraine's assault in Kursk would force Russia to divert troops to defend the region. However, officials and analysts say that has largely not happened. Russian troops have come from less active areas of fighting, while the defense of Kursk also largely fell on conscripts — rather than contract fighters — who have not previously fought in the conflict.^[4][5]

Sources: ^[1]Understandingwar, ^[2]Jerusalem Post, ^[3]Ukrainska Pravda, ^[4]Ft and ^[5]The Moscow Times.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. Ukraine's bold offensive in Kursk has lifted morale and changed the narrative among international partners that Ukraine would continue to suffer setbacks against a larger enemy. However, the strategy has risks. Committing troops to Kursk could leave forces vulnerable in Ukraine's east, and Ukraine's leadership must be mindful of this as the conflict progresses.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Ukraine believed that attacking inside Russia would strengthen its hand in potential peace negotiations. However, all it has done is put peace negotiations out of the question. Ukraine will pay the price for launching this offensive.

Predictions