UK: Sunak Faces Rebellion Over Rwanda Legislation

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Facts

  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faced backlash from members of his party on Tuesday over delays plaguing controversial plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, when a total of 60 Tory MPs voted in favor of amendments proposed by Conservative Sir Bill Cash.1
  • Two of those to rebel against the government, Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, announced that they were resigning from their roles as deputy chairs of the party in order to back Cash's proposed changes to the Safety of Rwanda Bill that would make it harder for migrants to appeal against deportation.2
  • The bill, which mandates that migrants who illegally cross the Channel may be deported to Rwanda permanently, has faced criticism from across the party, with those on the left expressing concerns about the plan's legality under international law, while right-wing members argue the legislation isn't strong enough to deter illegal migration to the UK.3
  • The bill is expected to pass through committee stage with no amendments. However, a third reading vote on Wednesday may be tougher to pass, as it would only take 29 Tory MPs to oppose or 57 to abstain for the bill to fail.4
  • The Rwanda policy has been cited as key to Sunak's pledge to 'stop the boats' bringing migrants across the English Channel, a journey made by over 29K people in 2023 alone.5
  • The UK has so far paid Rwanda at least £240M ($305M) under the agreement, though no migrants have yet been sent to the nation and the government has faced multiple legal challenges and criticism from human rights groups over the plans.5

Sources: 1Sky News, 2Associated Press, 3Yahoo News, 4Guardian and 5ABC News.

Narratives

  • Left narrative, as provided by Guardian. Though it's absolutely right that Sunak has made addressing dangerous and illegal migration to the UK a top priority, this draconian legislation and the blundering attempts at enacting it have brought shame on the British government. This latest rebellion reaffirms that the current executive is disintegrating, even before it is inevitably thrashed by Labour in the next general election. Illegal immigration is an issue, but the UK cannot address it by usurping human rights.
  • Right narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. While Tuesday's defeat was bruising, it's unlikely there will be enough rebel momentum to defeat the government in Wednesday's far more significant vote. Despite hyperbolic coverage, not much has changed regarding the bill — there are reservations across the party about it's efficacy but the conservatives are unified enough to get behind Sunak and pass the legislation. The real challenge will come when this faltering idea fails to deliver on its promises to address illegal migration — Sunak has pinned his colors to the wrong mast by whipping up emphasis on this policy.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by GB News. The Rwanda legislation has great potential, but will not be effective in its current form. The arguments behind proposed amendments to strengthen the legislation would address issues such as future legal challenges, and could reform the plans into a resilient deterrence against illegal migration. Britain has been considered a soft touch for too long, it is now time for Sunak to listen to the concerns of ordinary people and defend British sovereignty by supporting these amendments.

Predictions