UK Special Election: Labour Flips 2 Conservative-Held Seats

Facts

  • Britain's Labour Party flipped two seats held by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party in Thursday's by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.1
  • Results showed Gen Kitchen won Wellingborough in central England decisively, while Damien Egan took over the House of Commons seat in southwest England's Kingswood.2
  • According to BBC elections analyst John Curtice, the Wellingborough election resulted in the second-largest swing from the Conservatives to the Labour Party in nearly 80 years. 3
  • The Labour Party's victory, according to party leader Sir Keir Starmer, was 'fantastic' and indicates that 'people want change' and trust Labour to bring it about.4
  • Conservative chairman Richard Holden called the results 'very disappointing,' citing poor voter turnout in both districts. He said the Tories must try harder to persuade people to vote Conservative, adding that his party Tories can 'definitely' win a general election.5
  • The Tory party's setbacks come as official data released on Thursday suggested Britain had entered a recession due to poor economic performance in the latter two quarters of 2023, with a general election looming before January 2025.6

Sources: 1US News & World Report, 2ABC News, 3BBC News, 4Yahoo News, 5POLITICO and 6Independent.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Associated Press. With a national election coming up later this year, Sunak is desperate for a miracle. Sunak, the fifth Conservative leader since 2016, was already trailing 10-20 points behind Labour in opinion polls over the past couple years. Friday's results solidified how dire the situation is for the Conservatives.
  • Narrative B, as provided by New York Times. Labour looks on track for a big win in the general election in a few months, but it shouldn't get too far ahead of itself. Israel's war in Gaza has reignited some systemic antisemitism within the party, which is the type of problem that could derail a party's best-laid election plans.

Predictions