UK: Rwanda Law Passes Initial Parliament Vote

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Facts

  • Despite announcements by five Conservative backbench factions stating they would not support the government policy, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Rwanda bill has successfully passed through the initial stages of parliament within the House of Commons.1
  • A second reading of the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill on Tuesday evening saw the policy pass through the Commons by 313-269 votes, with 37 Conservative Party members of parliament among those choosing to abstain from the vote.2
  • Having already passed an initial reading on Dec. 7, the bill must pass a committee stage, a report stage, and a third reading stage before repeating the process in the House of Lords before amendments are considered and the royal assent is given.3
  • The Rwanda Bill aims to 'prevent and deter unlawful migration,' relocating asylum seekers to the East African state of Rwanda. The bill reaffirms the sovereignty of parliament and claims that individuals sent to Rwanda will be protected under 'all of the United Kingdom's obligations under international law,' while also declaring Rwanda a safe country.4
  • The bill comes after the UK Supreme Court rejected an appeal by the Home Office on Nov. 15, after the Court of Appeal ruled the policy to be unlawful. The Supreme Court cited 'substantial grounds' for asylum seekers to face 'ill-treatment' in Rwanda, including alleged non-compliance with international principles.5
  • While the One Nation group, a Conservative faction totaling approximately 100 lawmakers, backed the legislation, the right of the party has argued that the law will still not stand in court. The Labour Party also voted against the bill, with shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper arguing the UK was 'paying the price' as a result of a Tory 'civil war.'1

Sources: 1BBC News, 2Votes.parliament.uk, 3Bills.parliament.uk, 4Publications.parliament.uk and 5The supreme court.

Narratives

  • Left narrative, as provided by Guardian. While Sunak will be relieved by the bill's initial passing, the Prime Minister's authority has been damaged as his own party can't even agree on this policy. Sunak now faces a prolonged period of political infighting after promising amendments to the legislation in return for support within the Commons. With only a fragile hold over the government, an early election in the new year may materialize if the Rwanda bill doesn't successfully pass through Parliament.
  • Right narrative, as provided by The telegraph. The public supports the Rwanda plan, despite frustrating blockades by the UK's judiciary. Parliament is sovereign and the government's latest treaty ensures that Rwanda will uphold its end of the deal. Judges are not policymakers and should not be expected to influence politics in this manner. The Conservative government will continue its already successful reduction in immigration — the passing of this policy in Parliament is only the beginning of stricter border security.

Predictions