UK: Polls Open in Double By-Election

Facts

• Voting for the by-elections in the UK's Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth constituencies, currently held by the Conservative Party, began on Thursday.¹
• Polling stations are scheduled to close at 10 p.m. local time, while results are expected on Friday morning.²
• The by-election will replace Nadine Dorries — who stepped down in August due to not receiving a seat in the House of Lords — in Mid Bedfordshire and Chris Pincher — who resigned in September after being found to have committed an 'egregious case of sexual misconduct' — in Tamworth.³
• In 2019, Dorries won Mid Bedfordshire — a Conservative seat since 1931 — by a 24K vote margin over Labour. In Tamworth, the Tories hold a majority of over 19K votes.⁴
• The Conservative Party has admitted that 'difficult local circumstances' surrounding Dorries and Pincher's departure caused 'difficult headwinds' for the party in both constituencies.⁵
• Recent opinion polls show support for Labour in the next general election at 44%, compared to 28% for the Conservatives. The UK faces a January 2025 deadline to hold its next general election, with 38% currently viewing Keir Starmer as a 'prime minister in waiting.'⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Evening standard, ³Sky News, ⁴Independent, ⁵Express and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by The Mirror. The by-elections will provide an opportunity for Starmer to continue his momentum. A majority of approximately 20K was overturned in Selby and Ainsty as well as in Somerton and Frome by Labour and the Lib Dems, respectively, in July. Furthermore, Labour won the seat of Rutherglen & Hamilton West on a swing of 20.4% against the SNP earlier this month. The double by-election will show that Labour can't be slowed down in its path to governance.
• Right narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. For Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth to potentially be lost on the same day would be disastrous for the Conservative Party and Rishi Sunak. Hope lies in the ability of Labour and the Lib Dems to split the opposition vote, but this should not distract the Tories from the clear resentment that has emerged throughout the UK for the governing party. There is a long way to go if Sunak has any chance to remain in power.

Predictions