UK: Net Migration Hits Record 606K

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Facts

  • According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the nation received a record 606K net migrants last year, driven by non-EU nationals, refugees under the government's new Ukraine visa program, and those migrating for work and education.1
  • Despite four years of prime ministers promising to curb migration, this represents a 24% increase from 488K the year prior, with total long-term immigration estimated at around 1.2M in 2022 compared to a total of 557K leaving the UK.2
  • The government has also emphasized that many new arrivals are from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Afghanistan, with the number of people arriving through humanitarian routes increasing from 9% in 2021 to 19%.3
  • The pre-Brexit net migration average was between 200K-250K, with Home Sec. Suella Braverman having said she wanted to reduce it to "tens of thousands." Though PM Rishi Sunak had promised to keep it below 245K, he declined to detail a specific goal this week.2
  • As an election next year is likely, Sunak and his Conservative party must balance calls from party members and other pro-Brexit voters to slow legal immigration while also addressing labor shortages in many sectors.4
  • Among recent policies enacted by Braverman are restrictions on student visas, the central cause of migration to the UK, with only post-grad students now allowed to bring family members with them to the country.3

Sources: 1Al Jazeera, 2Guardian, 3CNBC, and 4Reuters.

Narratives

  • Right narrative, as provided by Sky News. The Conservative Party’s immigration goal is in line with what the public needs and wants, which is why Braverman is clamping down on the countless immigrants abusing the system. While a small, calculated number of students and workers are necessary for the economy, the government must not leave current citizens out to dry by replacing them with new arrivals who only cross the border to gain access to British education and jobs.
  • Left narrative, as provided by Guardian. Brexit accomplished what economists and others predicted: a fall in traditional EU immigration and a rise in non-EU, lower-skilled workers. This has left the nation grasping for workers in many sectors, though at the same time hasn't increased the wages of the existing population. At this point, the government shouldn't try to hinder immigration anymore and allow those who wish to work in the UK to do so freely so the economy can rebuild itself in the wake of the pandemic.

Predictions