UK General Election Exit Poll: Labour to Win 410 Seats

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Facts

  • Exit polling by BBC/ITV/Sky News has projected that the Labour Party has won Thursday's UK General Election, estimating that the party has won 410 out of 650 available seats in the House of Commons.1
  • The projected result is a 209 increase in seats for Labour. It is now expected that Sir Keir Starmer will be invited to become prime minister and form the UK's next government.1
  • The exit poll predicts the Conservatives will sit as the opposition within the Commons with 131 MPs, losing 241 seats. The Lib Dems are predicted to win 61 seats, up from 11 in 2019, while Reform and the SNP are predicted to win 13 and 10 seats respectively.2
  • The poll comes after the UK population voted between 7 am and 10 pm in their first election since December 2019. Official results for each constituency will be released throughout Thursday night and Friday morning.3
  • The election was called by now-former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 22, whose party had governed the UK for the past 14 years.4
  • Final MRP seat projections and voting intention polling by YouGov before election day, respectively, had predicted Labour to win 431 seats and 39% support, with the Conservatives receiving 102 seats and 22% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats 72 seats and 12% of the vote, and Reform UK 15% of the vote with three seats.5

Sources: 1BBC News (a), 2Sky News, 3BBC News (b), 4Verity and 5yougov.co.uk.

Narratives

  • Labour narrative, as provided by Guardian. At long last, the prospect of change and an air of excitement has finally returned to British politics. Since 2010, the Conservatives have done their best to suck all life, energy, and positivity out of the country while crippling the economy along the way. Reminiscent of Blair's 1997 triumph — although it is imperative that Starmer and his centrist wing do not forget their party's roots — there is genuine hope that under new leadership, things can truly get better for the UK.
  • Tory narrative, as provided by Conservative Home. While it may be the end for the Conservatives in government, it does not take a genius to see that Labour's support is born from apathy towards the current political establishment rather than love for Starmer and his party. Although there is no denying that parties and the economic disaster that was Liz Truss meant that Sunak always had a mountain to climb, and the public may be relieved to finally see the back of the Conservatives for now, it won't be long until Starmer's honeymoon bubble is abruptly burst.