UK Allocates £10.6B to EU for Brexit Payments

Facts

• The UK government has allocated £10.6B (US$13.5B) for future payments to the European Union (EU), as government figures published in November show that total EU liabilities in the year ending March 31, 2023 sit at £19.2B ($24.4B) — down from £31.7B ($40.3B) twelve months prior.^[1][2]
• The payments cover ongoing financial obligations, including EU staff pensions and pre-existing commitments made during EU membership, with payments potentially continuing until the 2060s.^[3]
• The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated in October that Brexit will reduce UK trade by 15% in the long term, with only 40% of the economic impact materialized so far.^[4][5]
• The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and EU is scheduled for review in 2026, though EU officials claim this means reviewing implementation rather than revising the treaty.^[6]
• The UK Treasury estimates the total net cost of the Brexit settlement will be £30.2B ($38.4B), with £23.8B ($30.3B) already paid as of December 2023.^[3]
• Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated his intention to initiate a reset of relations with Brussels, having held discussions with European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen and being set to be invited to an information EU leaders' retreat in Belgium in February.^[7][1]

Sources: ^[1]Independent (a), ^[2]UK Gov, ^[3]Researchbriefings, ^[4]Independent (b), ^[5]Office for Budget Responsibility, ^[6]Commonslibrary and ^[7]FT.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by The London Economic and Guardian. The Brexit divorce bill has faded from public focus despite its significant cost to the UK. Boris Johnson's disastrous deal has placed a terrible economic burden on the British public, likely to continue for decades. While the government rightly focuses on mending EU relations, the bill is a stark reminder of Brexit’s ongoing financial impact and that — in an increasingly protectionist world — the UK's safest option is to rejoin the European bloc.
• Right narrative, as provided by Daily Mail and GB News. Labour’s relentless pursuit of closer ties with the EU is a direct betrayal of the UK’s decision to leave, especially after the British people have already paid billions to divorce from the European bloc. Labour chooses to burn cash by propping up the EU's pension pot while telling pensioners there's not enough money to keep them warm this winter. Instead of moving forward, Starmer seeks to damage the UK economy and revoke British sovereignty to achieve ideological goals.

Predictions