UK Elections: Second Reform UK Candidate Defects to Tories

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Facts

• Reform UK candidate Georgie David, who had been running for the constituency of West Ham and Beckton, has suspended her party candidacy and defected to the Conservative Party, accusing now-former colleagues of being 'racist, misogynistic and bigoted.'¹
• While stating that the 'vast majority' of Reform candidates were 'bigoted,' David denied this applied to 'the party and its senior leadership.' This is in contrast to Liam Booth-Isherwood, who cited Reform leader Nigel Farage's behavior as he defected to the Tories two days prior.²
• In response to David's announcement, Reform Chairman Richard Tice alleged that the Tories had offered 'jobs and safe seats' in exchange for defection, accusing the Conservatives of 'dirty tricks' and 'desperate corruption.'¹
• This comes after The Times UK on Monday claimed that a Reform candidate, running in the constituency of Orkney and Shetland, posted insults about famous women on social media, including allegedly calling for Nicola Sturgeon to be shot.³
• Reform UK has recently withdrawn its support for three election candidates, including one who was recorded to have used a racist slur against Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Farage has since stated that 'the bad apples are gone' from his party.⁴
• Latest polling from YouGov, as of June 27, places Reform UK third with 17% of popular support, behind both the Conservatives (20%) and Labour (37%).⁵

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Sky News, ³The Times, ⁴Independent and ⁵YouGov.

Narratives

• Tory narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. No one knows how Reform will do in this election but what many do know is that the party has turned itself into a fringe movement very quickly. While Farage thought that his scandalous statements on Ukraine and his party's continual flow of bigotry could be swept under the rug, voters come election day will likely turn their noses up to Reform's culture of hatred.
• Reform narrative, as provided by X. Per usual, the media is trying to cherry-pick a handful of statements made by a couple of candidates and blame Nigel Farage and the entire party. In reality, some of these statements were made before Farage took charge, and those that were recently made were immediately condemned by the party's leadership. If Reform was so racist, why would the polls show it having more minority votes than the Liberal Democrats?

Predictions