UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat

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Facts

• A Telegraph/Savanta/Electoral Calculus poll has predicted that Rishi Sunak will become the first UK prime minister to lose his constituency seat in a general election, according to data taken from 18K people between June 7-18.¹
• Alongside Sunak, whose constituency is predicted to see a 34% swing away from the Tories in favor of an 18% increase for Labour and a 15% increase for Reform UK, Savanta's poll also sees Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary James Cleverly losing their seats.¹
• The survey forecasts 53 seats for the Conservative Party, having secured 365 MPs in the last general election. Despite the current prediction, Sunak's seat is one of 175 the survey deems 'too close to call.'²
• Polls released on Wednesday by YouGov, Savanta, and More in Common estimate that the Labour Party will win between 406-516 out of 650 seats in the House of Commons. Out of the three polls, only More in Common does not predict a historic low in seats held by the Conservative Party.³
• The Telegraph poll also estimates that the Liberal Democrats will receive 50 seats within the next parliamentary term, receiving 12% of the vote, while Reform UK is predicted to not win a single seat in the House of Commons despite polling at 13%.¹
• Using multilevel regression and post-stratification, polls survey individuals across the UK and project how results would apply on a constituency level based on age, sex, and other demographic variables of respondents.⁴

Sources: ¹The Telegraph, ²CNBC, ³Reuters and ⁴economist.com.

Narratives

• Tory narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). It would be disingenuous to suggest that the Tories still have a chance to remain in power after next month’s election, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to stop the bleeding. Polls forecast varying levels of doom, and it’s important for the party’s morale, and potentially its survival, to have as strong a representation in Parliament as possible. Sunak and his party need to keep up the fight and show how Conservative policies are working, even if it’s too late to win a majority of seats.
• Labour narrative, as provided by New Statesman. While Labour’s ascension to power is practically inevitable, securing as large a majority as possible remains a priority that will allow Keir Starmer to govern quickly and effectively. Labour has a lot to fix after a decade-plus of Tory rule, and an overwhelming majority in Parliament would allow the party to govern as it pleases. Labour must keep its foot on the gas and win the largest electoral mandate in British history.
• Reform narrative, as provided by GB News. Despite Savanta's prediction that Reform will win no seats, it is important to note that polling began only days after Farage's return to the helm of the party, which has since witnessed a surge in popularity. Irrespectively, the message is clear — Sunak and his party no longer hold the support of the British public.

Predictions