UK Elections: Immigration

Facts

• Overview: Since 1994, the number of people migrating to the UK has been consistently larger than the number emigrating. While COVID disrupted migration growth trends, the country has seen historic highs since. 1.2M individuals migrated to the UK in 2023, with net migration sitting at 685K. The statistics are second only to 2022's figures, which saw 1.26M migrants and a net migration of 764K. 2022 also saw a record high for yearly illegal small boat Channel crossings (46K), a statistic that decreased by 36% in 2023 (29K) before reaching a record quarterly high (5.4K) in Q1 2024.¹
• Overview: Since 1994, the number of people migrating to the UK has been consistently larger than the number emigrating. While COVID disrupted migration growth trends, the country has seen historic highs since. 1.2M individuals migrated to the UK in 2023, with net migration sitting at 685K. The statistics are second only to 2022's figures, which saw 1.26M migrants and a net migration of 764K. 2022 also saw a record high for yearly illegal small boat Channel crossings (46K), a statistic that decreased by 36% in 2023 (29K) before reaching a record quarterly high (5.4K) in Q1 2024.²
• Current state: In its 2023 report, the independent and non-departmental Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) notes that the UK failed to achieve its annual net migration target of below 100K throughout the 2010s. While figures are described as 'subject to significant uncertainty and revision,' the report notes that a 'sharp rise in [UK] net migration is explained primarily by a significant increase in non-EU immigration.' It also claims that net migration is 'unlikely' to remain at 'unusually high' levels, continuing that current trends are similar to comparator countries such as the US, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada, and can be 'explained both as a response to COVID-19... and (especially in Europe) by the crisis in Ukraine.'³
• Immigration as an election issue: According to YouGov, as of June 24, 40% of UK adults see immigration and asylum as one of the most important issues facing the country — third to only health (50%), and the economy (54%). In comparison, June's Ipsos Issues Index also places immigration/immigrants third at 30%. For Conservative supporters, immigration is the most important issue at 47%, compared to only 18% for Labour supporters.⁴
• Immigration as an election issue: According to YouGov, as of June 24, 40% of UK adults see immigration and asylum as one of the most important issues facing the country — third to only health (50%), and the economy (54%). In comparison, June's Ipsos Issues Index also places immigration/immigrants third at 30%. For Conservative supporters, immigration is the most important issue at 47%, compared to only 18% for Labour supporters.⁵
• Conservative pledges: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has claimed that, if reelected, a “regular rhythm” of flights to Rwanda will begin in July as part of a government scheme to combat illegal immigration. The UK also agreed to a $609M funding arrangement with France between 2023/24 and 2025/26 in order to 'drastically reduce' Channel crossings. The Conservative Party have restricted the ability for international students and care workers to bring dependents to the UK, and have increased both the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas and the minimum income for family visas to just under £38K ($48K). Both visas' income thresholds will continue to rise with inflation.⁶
• Conservative pledges: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has claimed that, if reelected, a “regular rhythm” of flights to Rwanda will begin in July as part of a government scheme to combat illegal immigration. The UK also agreed to a $609M funding arrangement with France between 2023/24 and 2025/26 in order to 'drastically reduce' Channel crossings. The Conservative Party have restricted the ability for international students and care workers to bring dependents to the UK, and have increased both the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas and the minimum income for family visas to just under £38K ($48K). Both visas' income thresholds will continue to rise with inflation.⁷
• Conservative pledges: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has claimed that, if reelected, a “regular rhythm” of flights to Rwanda will begin in July as part of a government scheme to combat illegal immigration. The UK also agreed to a $609M funding arrangement with France between 2023/24 and 2025/26 in order to 'drastically reduce' Channel crossings. The Conservative Party have restricted the ability for international students and care workers to bring dependents to the UK, and have increased both the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas and the minimum income for family visas to just under £38K ($48K). Both visas' income thresholds will continue to rise with inflation.⁸
• Labour pledges: Sir Keir Starmer has announced that, if elected, the Rwanda policy would be 'permanently' abandoned 'straight away.' The party has pledged to clear the current asylum backlog, as well as to 'smash criminal gangs' operating in the Channel by creating a new Border Security Command, a Returns and Enforcement Unit, and a Cross-Border Police Unit.⁹
• Labour pledges: Sir Keir Starmer has announced that, if elected, the Rwanda policy would be 'permanently' abandoned 'straight away.' The party has pledged to clear the current asylum backlog, as well as to 'smash criminal gangs' operating in the Channel by creating a new Border Security Command, a Returns and Enforcement Unit, and a Cross-Border Police Unit.¹⁰
• Reform pledges: Reform states that, within its first 100 prospective days of governance, it will freeze non-essential immigration, leave the European Convention of Human Rights, and create a new Department of Immigration. All asylum seekers will be detained with claims processed in British Overseas Territories, while all foreign criminals will be deported. Migrants that arrive in the UK on small boats will also be taken back to France. Student dependents will be restricted, while companies that employ “cheap, undocumented, illegal” labor will face “significant penalties.” The party claims that its immigration pledges will save the UK £5B ($6B) a year.¹¹
• Liberal democrats pledges: The Lib Dems pledge to scrap the UK government’s “Hostile Environment” policy, the Illegal Migration Act, and the Rwanda Scheme, focusing instead on investing in officers, training, and technology to end Channel trafficking. They also promise “safe and legal” routes for refugees and to lift the work ban on asylum seekers awaiting visa decisions for over three months. Work visa and overseas student policy decisions will move away from the Home Office, and a dedicated unit will address the asylum backlog. The EU Youth Mobility Scheme will be expanded with abolished fees, three-year visas, and an age limit increase to 35, granting pre-settled EU citizens full settled status.¹²

Sources: ¹researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk, ²GOV.UK, ³gov.uk, ⁴yougov.co.uk, ⁵Ipsos, ⁶public.conservatives.com, ⁷Commonslibrary, ⁸nao.org.uk, ⁹labour.org.uk, ¹⁰YouTube, ¹¹assets.nationbuilder.com and ¹²Libdems.

Narratives

• Tory narrative, as provided by Conservative Home. With the UK now a global hotspot for illegal immigrants, the Safety of Rwanda Bill may not be the perfect solution, but it is certainly the best available option. Labour’s complaints against the policy are based upon tried and failed ideals of collaborative European crime crackdowns and cynical attempts to undermine government policy. Albeit costly, the Rwanda Act will act as a strong deterrent and send a clear message that those who unlawfully take advantage of the UK are not welcome.
• Labour narrative, as provided by LabourList. Polling shows that Labour supporters do not share the same concerns as their Tory counterparts when it comes to immigration. While Starmer has the difficult challenge of maintaining electoral support from differing demographics and ideologies, so far it is clear that he's trusted more than Sunak to strike a competent balance of both compassion and security at the country's borders. Only time will tell if the Labour leader will be able to sustain this success once his party enters Downing Street.
• Reform narrative, as provided by GB News. The UK is facing a siege of illegal migrants who seek to tear the country apart from the inside. Tories and Labour alike continue to ignore the swaths of crime that are accompanying asylum seekers to the UK, and the damage that they are having on British society. UK border security must be taken seriously and this dangerous trend must be immediately halted before it is too late.
• Progressive narrative, as provided by Red Pepper. Both Labour and the Conservatives have openly rejected their duty to support asylum seekers. With a lack of legal safe routes to the UK only encouraging a rise in human traffickers, it is vital that grassroot campaigns continue to support those in need while the political establishment turns a blind eye to their humanitarian responsibilities.