UK Elections: Housing

Facts

• Overview: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that, as of mid-2022, the UK population sat at 67.6M — with 57.1M inhabiting England, 5.5M in Scotland, 3.1M in Wales, and 1.9M in Northern Ireland. According to the latest government data for 2022/23, there were approximately 24.4M households in England living within self-contained accommodation. 65% (15.8M) of households are occupied by their owners, in comparison to 19% (4.6M) which are privately rented, and 16% (4.0M) which are social houses.¹
• Overview: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that, as of mid-2022, the UK population sat at 67.6M — with 57.1M inhabiting England, 5.5M in Scotland, 3.1M in Wales, and 1.9M in Northern Ireland. According to the latest government data for 2022/23, there were approximately 24.4M households in England living within self-contained accommodation. 65% (15.8M) of households are occupied by their owners, in comparison to 19% (4.6M) which are privately rented, and 16% (4.0M) which are social houses.²
• Current state: Full-time employees in England were expected to spend approximately 8.3 times their annual income when buying a house in 2023, an increase from roughly 6.8 in 2013, 5.9 in 2003, and 3.5 in 1997. The average private rent in the UK increased by 8.9% in the year to April 2024 (provisional estimate). Average private monthly rent in Great Britain sits at approximately £1.25K ($1.6K, +9.1%), with the average price in England being £1.29K ($1.6K, +9.1%), Wales £730 ($930, +9.0%), and Scotland £950 ($1.21K, + 10.5%). 2023 saw 231K new homes being completed in England — a 9% decrease from 2022 — while planning consents for new homes fell to 235K — the lowest since 2013.³
• Current state: Full-time employees in England were expected to spend approximately 8.3 times their annual income when buying a house in 2023, an increase from roughly 6.8 in 2013, 5.9 in 2003, and 3.5 in 1997. The average private rent in the UK increased by 8.9% in the year to April 2024 (provisional estimate). Average private monthly rent in Great Britain sits at approximately £1.25K ($1.6K, +9.1%), with the average price in England being £1.29K ($1.6K, +9.1%), Wales £730 ($930, +9.0%), and Scotland £950 ($1.21K, + 10.5%). 2023 saw 231K new homes being completed in England — a 9% decrease from 2022 — while planning consents for new homes fell to 235K — the lowest since 2013.⁴
• Current state: Full-time employees in England were expected to spend approximately 8.3 times their annual income when buying a house in 2023, an increase from roughly 6.8 in 2013, 5.9 in 2003, and 3.5 in 1997. The average private rent in the UK increased by 8.9% in the year to April 2024 (provisional estimate). Average private monthly rent in Great Britain sits at approximately £1.25K ($1.6K, +9.1%), with the average price in England being £1.29K ($1.6K, +9.1%), Wales £730 ($930, +9.0%), and Scotland £950 ($1.21K, + 10.5%). 2023 saw 231K new homes being completed in England — a 9% decrease from 2022 — while planning consents for new homes fell to 235K — the lowest since 2013.⁵
• Housing as an election issue: Latest YouGov data shows that, as of June 24, housing is viewed as the fourth most important issue facing the UK, sitting at 25% and behind only immigration and asylum (40%), health (50%), and the economy (54%). In comparison, June's Ipsos Issues Index found housing to be the fifth most important issue at 17%, rising to 20% amongst Labour supporters and dropping to 9% amongst Conservatives.⁶
• Housing as an election issue: Latest YouGov data shows that, as of June 24, housing is viewed as the fourth most important issue facing the UK, sitting at 25% and behind only immigration and asylum (40%), health (50%), and the economy (54%). In comparison, June's Ipsos Issues Index found housing to be the fifth most important issue at 17%, rising to 20% amongst Labour supporters and dropping to 9% amongst Conservatives.⁷
• Conservative pledges: Within their 2019 manifesto, the Conservative Party committed to building 300K houses a year by the mid-2020s. In their 2024 manifesto, they pledged to build 1.6M homes in England within the next parliamentary term. This will purportedly be achieved by, amongst other measures, building on brownfield land in the 20 largest cities, raising London’s density to levels similar to Paris and Barcelona, creating new quarters in Leeds, Liverpool, and York, and continuing the Cambridge 2050 plan. First time buyers will see stamp duty raised to homes valued at £425K ($541K) from £300K ($382K), while a “new and improved” Help to Buy scheme will offer an equity loan of up to 20% towards new build houses. The party has also recommitted to passing the Renters Reform Bill, abolishing Section 21 “no fault” evictions.⁸
• Labour pledges: The opposition have announced a target to build 1.5M new houses within their first prospective term in government, as well as the contraction of a 'new generation of new towns inspired by the proud legacy of the 1945 Labour government.' The party claims that they will do this by prioritizing building in brownfield land as well as taking a 'strategic approach' to Green Belt development designation by 'releasing lower quality 'grey belt' land.' Labour have also pledged that at least 50% of new builds will be affordable houses, while plans will also 'boost public services and infrastructure' such as schools, nurseries, health centers, and general practices. Non-UK residents will also see a 1% increase in stamp duty charges.⁹
• Labour pledges: The opposition have announced a target to build 1.5M new houses within their first prospective term in government, as well as the contraction of a 'new generation of new towns inspired by the proud legacy of the 1945 Labour government.' The party claims that they will do this by prioritizing building in brownfield land as well as taking a 'strategic approach' to Green Belt development designation by 'releasing lower quality 'grey belt' land.' Labour have also pledged that at least 50% of new builds will be affordable houses, while plans will also 'boost public services and infrastructure' such as schools, nurseries, health centers, and general practices. Non-UK residents will also see a 1% increase in stamp duty charges.¹⁰
• Reform UK pledges: Reform states that it will review the UK’s planning system and fast track planning and tax incentives for redeveloping brownfield sites. Social housing will also be reformed, with the party claiming it will prioritize “those who have paid into the system” while foreign nationals will “go to the back of the queue.” 2019 tax changes for landlords will be reversed, and the Renters Reform Bill will be scrapped. The party has also committed to creating new apprenticeships and vocational courses to “replace cheap overseas labor.” Reform claims that housing reform will be net neutral in cost per year.¹¹
• Liberal Democrats pledges: The Lib Dems pledge to build 380K new homes annually, including 150K social homes, and create new 'garden cities' and community-led developments. Housing on brownfield sites will be incentivized, and those who refuse to build will lose planning permission. They will ban no-fault evictions, make three-year tenancies the default, create a national register of licensed landlords, and introduce a Rent to Own policy for social housing, allowing tenants to own their property after 30 years. National Park Authorities will gain powers to end Right to Buy. The party aims to end rough sleeping in the next Parliament and immediately scrap the Vagrancy Act.¹²

Sources: ¹gov.uk, ²ONS (a), ³ons.gov.uk, ⁴ONS (b), ⁵savills.co.uk, ⁶yougov.co.uk, ⁷ipsos.com, ⁸public.conservatives.com, ⁹labour.org.uk, ¹⁰The Labour Party, ¹¹assets.nationbuilder.com and ¹²Libdems.

Narratives

• Tory narrative, as provided by Conservative Home. Regaining control of the housing market is integral to the future of the UK’s democracy. The longer younger generations remain unable to own a key stake in society, the less they shall seek to protect the system they find themselves a part of. The longer Millennials and Gen. Zs remain discontent, the more likely populism will continue to grow and undermine the country’s very values.
• Labour narrative, as provided by Guardian. Starmer’s decision to remain bold and steadfast with housing reform while other policy sectors have experienced budget slashes shows Labour’s acute awareness of how important the current crisis is to younger generations. While the Tories, and even New Labour, have missed housing targets, Starmer’s commitment to getting the UK building again could be the decisive factor in mobilizing the Millenial vote in a new electoral era.
• Reform narrative, as provided by thesun.co.uk. Both government and opposition remain unified in ignoring the impact that migration is having on the UK housing market. As an overflowing population continues to swamp supply and spike prices, Tories and Labour alike remain too scared to confront the elephant in the room.
• Progressive narrative, as provided by Morning Star. Following in the Conservative Party’s footsteps, Labour’s austerity-inspired policies will do nothing to solve the UK’s housing crisis. Despite Hunt and Reeves’ best attempts to ignore the obvious, higher taxes and increased spending are the answers if the country finally wants to see improvements in the living standards of the working classes.