UK Elections: Defense

Facts

• Overview: The UK maintains the world's fourth largest defense budget ($70B) according to the Ministry of Defence (MOD), behind only Russia ($88B), China ($242B), and the US ($767B). Full-time UK Armed Forces personnel sat at 131K as of October 2023, with nearly 30K Reserves, while the MOD supported a total of 406K jobs in 2021-22. A member of NATO, the UK states that it has met its commitment to spend at least 2% of national GDP on defense expenditure since 2006, and since 1969 the Royal Navy has maintained at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine patrolling the seas at all times — titled the continuous-at-sea deterrent (CASD).¹
• Current State: A report released by the bipartisan House of Commons Defence Committee published in February 2024 claimed that the UK Armed Forces are “deployed above their capacity” due to a “worsening security situation.” The committee stated that there were “capability shortfalls and stockpile shortages,” and alleged that it had been “hampered… by a lack of Government transparency.” Over the last three years, full-time army, navy, and air force personnel have fallen by 7%, 5%, and 6%, respectively.²
• Current State: A report released by the bipartisan House of Commons Defence Committee published in February 2024 claimed that the UK Armed Forces are “deployed above their capacity” due to a “worsening security situation.” The committee stated that there were “capability shortfalls and stockpile shortages,” and alleged that it had been “hampered… by a lack of Government transparency.” Over the last three years, full-time army, navy, and air force personnel have fallen by 7%, 5%, and 6%, respectively.³
• Defense as an election issue: According to YouGov's latest polling, as of June 24 14% of surveyed UK adults see defense and security as one of the most important issues facing the country. Furthermore, Ipsos polling from May 15 shows that 42% support a defense spending increase to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, in comparison to 22% who oppose such a measure.⁴
• Defense as an election issue: According to YouGov's latest polling, as of June 24 14% of surveyed UK adults see defense and security as one of the most important issues facing the country. Furthermore, Ipsos polling from May 15 shows that 42% support a defense spending increase to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, in comparison to 22% who oppose such a measure.⁵
• Conservative Party pledges: Rishi Sunak announced in April that the Conservative government had committed to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, committing an additional £75B ($94B) from a frozen cash baseline by the end of the decade. The Conservative manifesto claims that the UK will also “launch a campaign” to set 2.5% as a defense expenditure baseline across NATO. The party has promised £10B ($12.5B) towards growing domestic munition pipelines and stockpiles, while defense spending towards research and development will be increased by two percentage points to 5% from 2025/26. The spending increase also included an immediate £500M ($639M) aid package to Ukraine, taking total pledged aid to £12.5B ($16B). The Conservative Party's proposed National Service scheme will also allow 18-year-olds to apply for 30K full-time 12 month military placements.⁶
• Conservative Party pledges: Rishi Sunak announced in April that the Conservative government had committed to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, committing an additional £75B ($94B) from a frozen cash baseline by the end of the decade. The Conservative manifesto claims that the UK will also “launch a campaign” to set 2.5% as a defense expenditure baseline across NATO. The party has promised £10B ($12.5B) towards growing domestic munition pipelines and stockpiles, while defense spending towards research and development will be increased by two percentage points to 5% from 2025/26. The spending increase also included an immediate £500M ($639M) aid package to Ukraine, taking total pledged aid to £12.5B ($16B). The Conservative Party's proposed National Service scheme will also allow 18-year-olds to apply for 30K full-time 12 month military placements.⁷
• Labour Party pledges: The opposition has claimed that its 'first duty' is to protect the UK via 'economic stability, secure borders and strong defense,' and has announced their 'ambition' to raise defense spending to 2.5% GDP 'as soon as resources allow' following a Strategic Defence Review within their first prospective year in government. Sir Keir Starmer has described his commitment to NATO and the continued existence of a UK nuclear deterrent as 'unshakeable,' pledging to build four more Dreadnought nuclear submarines.⁸
• Labour Party pledges: The opposition has claimed that its 'first duty' is to protect the UK via 'economic stability, secure borders and strong defense,' and has announced their 'ambition' to raise defense spending to 2.5% GDP 'as soon as resources allow' following a Strategic Defence Review within their first prospective year in government. Sir Keir Starmer has described his commitment to NATO and the continued existence of a UK nuclear deterrent as 'unshakeable,' pledging to build four more Dreadnought nuclear submarines.⁹
• Reform UK pledges: Reform UK has committed to increasing defense spending to 2.5% of GDP within three years, and 3% within six. UK Armed Forces will pull out of the EU Horizon programme, no longer sending money to the European Defence Fund. Reform have also pledged to establish a new Ministerial Department for Veterans, while ensuring free education for military personnel both during and after service. Tax breaks and incentives will be introduced for the UK’s defense industry, and a Joint Acquisition Corp will be created to “ensure world class procurement.”¹⁰
• Liberal Democrats pledges: The Lib Dems pledge to restore the Army to over 100K regular troops and increase defense spending annually, aiming for 2.5% of GDP. They will maintain the UK’s nuclear deterrent while pursuing global disarmament and control arms exports to countries with 'poor' human rights records. Cooperation with Nordic and Baltic States will increase via Joint Expeditionary Treaties, and a defense and security agreement with the EU will be sought. MoD housing will be reviewed, and the Armed Forces Covenant will be strengthened by legally mandating the Defense Secretary and UK Government to give it 'due regard.'¹¹

Sources: ¹assets.publishing.service, ²committees.parliament.uk, ³gov.uk, ⁴Ipsos, ⁵yougov.co.uk, ⁶assets.publishing.service.gov.uk, ⁷public.conservatives.com, ⁸labour.org.uk, ⁹The Labour Party, ¹⁰assets.nationbuilder.com and ¹¹Libdems.

Narratives

• Tory narrative, as provided by Conservative Home. The UK is a country renowned for championing security, a pillar of society that only the Conservative Party are willing to take seriously. The public need reassurance that the Armed Forces will be sufficiently resourced during an increasingly dangerous era, and the Labour Party have shown they're not willing to match Tory commitments to 2.5% GDP spending and aspirations for 3.0%. It's essential that come election day voters choose the party they truly trust to ensure the safety of UK democracy.
• Labour narrative, as provided by Guardian. Labour must be realistic with the British public over the condition of UK military capabilities. With the Conservatives likely election losers, Sunak’s ability to make blind funding promises is not a luxury Starmer and the opposition can afford. Labour’s promise of a year one military review is a sensible first step in initiating a frank and honest conversation over how the military can be reformed within tight fiscal conditions.
• Reform narrative, as provided by Spiked. The UK’s Armed Forces has been taken over by a fixation on diversity instead of defense. Military policies are now decided by a woke agenda instead of a focus on securing the nation’s future. The entire political elite have adopted a political agenda that, if continued, will only deepen the military’s recruitment crisis and cement the UK’s status as a laughing stock.
• Progressive narrative, as provided by World Socialist Web Site. Sunak’s surprise election call is a superficial attempt to gain a popular mandate before NATO inevitably enters direct conflict with Russia. Irrespective of whether Labour or the Tories secure victory, the UK will remain a puppet to the US’ military ambition and it's clear that either leader will happily oblige in sustaining the success of the military-industrial complex.

Predictions