UK Elections: Crime

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Facts

  • Overview: Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) reported 8.4M headline crimes in the year up to December 2023, a 6.5% decrease from the twelve months prior (9.0M), and 25% since data began including fraud and computer misuse in March 2017. In 2023, criminal damage fell by 18%, homicide by 6% and fraud by 16%. In contrast, computer misuse increased by 29%, alongside rises in firearm offenses (9%), knife/sharp instrument crime (7%), shoplifting (37%), and theft (18%). As of March 2023, there were 171K police officers in the UK, a 20K increase from 2016 but 1K less than in 2010.1
  • Overview: Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) reported 8.4M headline crimes in the year up to December 2023, a 6.5% decrease from the twelve months prior (9.0M), and 25% since data began including fraud and computer misuse in March 2017. In 2023, criminal damage fell by 18%, homicide by 6% and fraud by 16%. In contrast, computer misuse increased by 29%, alongside rises in firearm offenses (9%), knife/sharp instrument crime (7%), shoplifting (37%), and theft (18%). As of March 2023, there were 171K police officers in the UK, a 20K increase from 2016 but 1K less than in 2010.2
  • Overview: Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) reported 8.4M headline crimes in the year up to December 2023, a 6.5% decrease from the twelve months prior (9.0M), and 25% since data began including fraud and computer misuse in March 2017. In 2023, criminal damage fell by 18%, homicide by 6% and fraud by 16%. In contrast, computer misuse increased by 29%, alongside rises in firearm offenses (9%), knife/sharp instrument crime (7%), shoplifting (37%), and theft (18%). As of March 2023, there were 171K police officers in the UK, a 20K increase from 2016 but 1K less than in 2010.3
  • Current state: The UK's latest (2022) policing assessment claims England and Wales are 'arguably safer than... ever,' but their forces face a 'long-term trend of rising demand' and a major crisis, with 'unacceptably low' public trust and 'widespread systemic failings' in the police and criminal justice system. In addition, the Home Office's 2024 Police Covenant report highlighted 'extreme fatigue' as an area of growing concern due to increasing pressures on officers and staff. The National Crime Agency cited geopolitical instability, the cost of living, and advancements in technology as contributing towards a rise in 'serious and organised crime.'4
  • Current state: The UK's latest (2022) policing assessment claims England and Wales are 'arguably safer than... ever,' but their forces face a 'long-term trend of rising demand' and a major crisis, with 'unacceptably low' public trust and 'widespread systemic failings' in the police and criminal justice system. In addition, the Home Office's 2024 Police Covenant report highlighted 'extreme fatigue' as an area of growing concern due to increasing pressures on officers and staff. The National Crime Agency cited geopolitical instability, the cost of living, and advancements in technology as contributing towards a rise in 'serious and organised crime.'5
  • Current state: The UK's latest (2022) policing assessment claims England and Wales are 'arguably safer than... ever,' but their forces face a 'long-term trend of rising demand' and a major crisis, with 'unacceptably low' public trust and 'widespread systemic failings' in the police and criminal justice system. In addition, the Home Office's 2024 Police Covenant report highlighted 'extreme fatigue' as an area of growing concern due to increasing pressures on officers and staff. The National Crime Agency cited geopolitical instability, the cost of living, and advancements in technology as contributing towards a rise in 'serious and organised crime.'6
  • Crime as an election issue: According to YouGov, as of June 24, 19% of UK adults see crime as one of the most important issues facing the country. In contrast, June's Ipsos Issues Index found only 10% of UK adults consider crime/law and order/antisocial behavior an important issue. This statistic remains unchanged for Conservative supporters, while only 7% of Labour supporters view the topic as important.7
  • Crime as an election issue: According to YouGov, as of June 24, 19% of UK adults see crime as one of the most important issues facing the country. In contrast, June's Ipsos Issues Index found only 10% of UK adults consider crime/law and order/antisocial behavior an important issue. This statistic remains unchanged for Conservative supporters, while only 7% of Labour supporters view the topic as important.8
  • Tory pledges: The Conservatives have pledged to provide every neighborhood an additional police officer, recruiting 8K more officers. They've also promised to allow police new tools, such as facial recognition, and increase powers to seize knives. They've further proposed a 25-year term for domestic murders, as well as a new investigatory model for rape. Tougher sentences are promised for knife crime, grooming, and assaults on retail workers, along with increased removals of foreign national offenders. Martyn's law will mandate enhanced security in public venues, while 20K more prison places are promised by 2030.9
  • Labour pledges: Labour has promised to recruit 'thousands' of officers under a new neighborhood policing guarantee, funded by reducing waste through a Police Efficiency and Collaboration program. They've also pledged to create Respect Orders to ban persistent antisocial behavior in town centers, and introduce a specific offense for assaults on shop workers. With the aim of halving knife crime in a decade, every young person caught with a knife will be referred to a Youth Offending Team. Labour has further pledged to fast-track rape cases and establish specialist courts, and have promised to build more prisons, reduce reoffending, and conduct a strategic review of probation governance.10
  • Reform pledges: Reform UK has pledged to withdraw citizenship from immigrants who commit crimes, except for some misdemeanors. They've also promised an additional 40K frontline officers, and a substantial increase in stop and search. The criminal justice budget will rise from £10B ($13B) to £12B ($15B), 10K new detention places will be built, and the definition of a hate crime will be changed. Reform UK estimates their police and justice policies will cost an additional £5B ($6B) a year.11
  • Liberal Democrats pledges: The Lib Dems pledge to restore community police officers focused on preventing and solving crime, particularly rape and violent offenses. They will mandate training for police and prosecutors to understand the trauma of women survivors of violence. A statutory guarantee will ensure all burglaries are investigated, and a new Online Crime Agency will tackle illegal content. The National Crime Agency will be 'properly resourced,' police and crime commissioners replaced with local police boards, and the time from offense to sentencing halved to reduce court backlogs. A public health approach will combat knife crime, and mental health hubs will be established in every community. Police will receive mental health training, with a mental health professional present in all force control rooms.12

Sources: 1ons.gov.uk, 2gov.uk, 3Researchbriefings, 4hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk, 5GOV.UK, 6Nationalcrimeagency, 7yougov.co.uk, 8Ipsos, 9public.conservatives.com, 10labour.org.uk, 11assets.nationbuilder.com and 12Libdems.

Narratives

  • Tory narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). Currently failing to solve 90% of reported crimes, police are in need of major reform. While fixated on regulating free speech and appeasing sensitive ideologies, the UK's police force have for too long allowed mob behavior, criminal gangs, and rampant antisemitism to go unchecked. As is apparent across the entirety of Western civilization, police have forgotten their duty to protect the public and continue to let crime fester unchecked.
  • Labour narrative, as provided by Guardian. Keir Starmer's prioritization of crime highlights Labour's commitment to addressing this pressing issue. As knife crime, violence against women, and growing court backlogs plague British society, Sunak and the Tories have chosen to ignore the dangerous consequences. By understanding the effects of poverty and underinvestment while sending a tough message to those threatening the country's security, Starmer and Labour are dedicated to making the UK safe again.
  • Reform narrative, as provided by GB News. Years of carefree border control have encouraged a spike in criminal activity stemming from foreign offenders. Mainstream parties continue to ignore the elephant in the room — prioritizing political correctness over the British people. While the government continues to hide damning statistics proving the UK to be but one country in a wider trend of migrant crime, the truth is there for all to see on the country's streets.
  • Progressive narrative, as provided by Socialist Worker. The public cannot trust an inherently corrupt and flawed system to provide fair protection under the law. Only through class struggle and grassroots activism can reform guaranteeing true de facto equality be implemented, allowing the UK to break free from its long history of oppression.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by metaculus.com. There is a 50% chance that, if Labour wins the next UK general election, England and Wales' prison population rate will be 128.5 per 100K five years later – according to the Metaculus prediction community.