UK Elections: YouGov Poll Shows Reform Ahead of Tories

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Facts

• YouGov's latest poll, published on Thursday, places Reform UK as the second most popular UK political party according to data gathered between June 12-13. Headline results saw Reform (19%) sitting a percentage point above the Conservative Party's 18%, with both nearly 20 points behind Labour at 37%.¹
• When voters were asked specifically who they intend to vote for on election day, both Reform (13%) and the Tories (11%) ranked behind 'don't know' at 15%. Liberal Democrat supporters sat at 10%, the same amount as those intending not to vote, with the Green Party at 5%. Labour remained first with 29%.²
• The survey results were released Thursday before an ITV debate between senior officials from seven major parties. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage claimed the figures meant his party is 'now the opposition to Labour.”³
• Continuing at a press conference in Westminster the next day, Farage described the moment as an 'inflection point,' claiming that Reform is the 'real opposition' to Sir Keir Starmer's party. Farage also publicly requested that Reform participate in next week’s BBC debate between leaders of the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and SNP.⁴
• Farage announced earlier this month that he was returning as Reform's leader, replacing Richard Tice, and running to be MP for Clacton after he previously ruled himself out of July's election.⁵
• Independent UK fact-checking charity Full Fact has announced that it expects Reform's manifesto to be released on June 17.⁶

Sources: ¹YouGov (a), ²YouGov (b), ³Sky News, ⁴Independent, ⁵BBC News and ⁶Full Fact.

Narratives

• Reform narrative, as provided by GB News. Farage and Reform have surpassed the Tories as the main party on the British right, and this poll is just the beginning of a seismic political shift. After years of being let down by the milquetoast Conservatives, patriotic Brits are flocking to Reform’s common-sense message of limiting immigration and putting the UK first. The Tories are in deep trouble, and leaders, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, have themselves to blame for betraying their constituents.
• Tory narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. While many Brits have grown tired of the Tories after over a decade of rule, the answer does not lie in a hard-right turn. Labour has been poised to win this year’s election for some time, and Reform’s recent polling rise shouldn't be considered a long-term indicator of sentiment. The political pendulum will always swing back and forth, and the Conservatives will only regain power by running as a center-right party.
• Labour narrative, as provided by New Statesman. Farage has completely upended the Tories like a human wrecking ball. His brand of politics is on the fringe, but he's exposing a major divide on the British right at the expense of a weak Conservative Party lacking in grassroots support. It remains to be seen how Reform will perform on Election Day, but the party’s rise could facilitate a massive majority for Labour.

Predictions