UK Elections: Sunak, Starmer Face Questions in Grimsby

Facts

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer were independently interviewed by Beth Rigby and answered audience questions live on television during a Sky News election program on Wednesday evening.¹
• Sunak stated that it 'ha[d]n't been an easy 18 months' before asking for forgiveness for leaving commemorations for the 80th anniversary of D-Day early. He added that the government was 'investing record amounts' in the NHS and reaffirmed that 'trust takes time to rebuild.'²
• Starmer stated that he was certain that Labour would lose the 2019 election under Jeremy Corbyn and that he had since chosen to put 'country first' and drag Labour 'back into the service of working people.'²
• According to a snap post-debate poll by YouGov, 64% of respondents believed that Starmer won the debate.³
• In contrast, when Sunak and Starmer held their first head-to-head debate on June 4, YouGov's snap poll found that the Conservative prime minister had won by a margin of 51%- 49%.⁴
• As of June 10, YouGov places the Labour Party with 38% of electoral support, followed by the governing Conservative Party with 18%, Reform UK at 17%, the Liberal Democrats at 15%, and the Green Party at 8%.⁵

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Sky News, ³POLITICO, ⁴Verity and ⁵yougov.co.uk.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Conservative Home. While Sunak and the Tories have failed to convince voters to trust the party once again so far, there's still time for fortunes to change. With Reform UK, voters are acutely aware that a vote for Farage is a vote for Starmer, and a sizeable proportion of the population is still undecided about who to vote for or whether to vote at all. There may still be a twist to come in this election story.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Independent. Once again experiencing a series of criticisms, the Sky News event was another damning blow to the prime minister, who spent much of his 45 minutes apologizing for election gaffs and pandemic parties. While also not an easy night for Starmer, the Labour leader left the consensus victor and will remain confident that he will be in Downing Street on July 5.

Predictions