UK: Downing Street 'Shelves' Plan for Summer General Election

Facts

• The Telegraph reported Sunday that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is no longer considering a summer 2024 general election, following recent by-election losses for his Conservative Party.¹
• Last week, the Tories lost 474 council seats in England, and now sit as the third largest locally represented party (515) behind the Liberal Democrats (522 up 104), and the Labour Party (1.2K, an increase of 186).²
• Local election results also saw Labour's Sadiq Khan re-elected as London's Mayor for a third term. Including Khan, Labour won ten of 11 mayoral elections, while the Conservative Party achieved a singular victory in Tees Valley.³
• The Telegraph claims that — according to 'senior figures' within the Conservative Party's election campaign — it is '80 to 90% likely' that a general election will be called in either October or November.¹
• Speaking to The Times, Sunak stated that recent local election results foreshadowed a 'hung parliament with Labour as the largest party,' before claiming that the UK needs action instead of 'political horse-trading.'⁴
• According to the latest general election polling by YouGov/Times, as of May 1 Labour held 44% of popular support among UK adults compared to the Conservative Party's 18%, Reform UK's 15%, the Liberal Democrats' 10%, and the Green Party's 8%.⁵

Sources: ¹The Telegraph, ²BBC News, ³Sky News, ⁴Independent and ⁵YouGov.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by Conservative Home. Despite heavy local defeats, it now seems unlikely that the Tories will oust Sunak before the next general election. While there is some hope that a similar Labour performance come the end of the year would only translate into a hung Parliament, last week's real takeaway is that the Conservative Party's moderate candidates performed better than their counterparts further to the right. The Conservatives must once again become a party of sensibility, rather than sensationalism, if there is any hope of a respectable general election outcome.
• Left narrative, as provided by Guardian. There is no silver lining to recent results for the Conservatives, and Sunak only remains in the job because rivals within his party understand that to become prime minister now would be career suicide. Postponing the election until after Summer will not change the reality for the Conservative party — there is no way back to Downing Street for Sunak or the Tories.

Predictions