UK: Conservatives Lose Two Constituencies in By-Election Defeat

Facts

• The UK's governing Conservative Party has lost the constituencies of Mid Bedford and Tamworth to the Labour Party following two by-elections held on Thursday.¹
• In Tamworth, Labour candidate Sarah Edwards won by a margin of 1,316 votes, overturning a majority of 19K in favor of the Conservative Party. In Mid Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern won his seat by 1,192 votes—previously held by the Tory Party by 24K.²
• In the by-election in Mid Bedfordshire, Labour gained the seat with a 20.5% swing from the Conservatives, who had held it since 1931. The result was the largest numerical Conservative majority to be overturned at a by-election since 1945.³
• The Tamworth seat, which had been Conservative since 2010, saw a 23.9% swing to Labour—the second-largest percentage change from Tory to Labour since 1945.⁴
• The Conservative Party has won only one of the last 12 by-elections in parliament. The seats became available after former member of parliament Nadine Dorries resigned after not being awarded honors in the House of Lords, while former lawmaker Chris Pincher resigned after being suspended for sexual misconduct allegations.⁵
• Following the by-election results, Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands claimed that the Tories had 'a big job to do,' further commenting that it was necessary to incentivize voters to vote conservative.⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Independent, ³Evening Standard, ⁴Sky News, ⁵Reuters and ⁶LBC.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. The defeats are a major plow to the Tory party. While the disgraced exits of Pincher and Dorries certainly played a part, dramatically low turnouts compared to the last general election — as well as the right-wing draw of Reform UK influential in the result — it's clear that the results are too bad to spin, and the party has work to do to regain the public's trust.
• Left narrative, as provided by The Mirror. The historically bad defeats to the Labour Party show Sunak's embarrassing attempt at a reset fall flat. The Tories look destined for a wipeout in the next general election. Due to the rampant toxicity of the Tory party, Labour's biggest concern should be the likelihood of Sunak and the current government destroying the UK as much as they can in the dwindling time they have in power.

Predictions