UK: China's Military Buildup Risks ‘Tragic Miscalculation'

Facts

• British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Tuesday called on China to be more transparent about its military moves, warning that maintaining secrecy about its activities could lead to a "tragic miscalculation" amid rising regional tensions.¹
• In his speech at London's Mansion House, Cleverly called the PRC's military activities in the Indo-Pacific "the biggest military buildup in peacetime history," and urged Beijing to be as open about the "doctrine and intent behind its military expansion" in the region as Britain and its allies.²
• During his address, which was devoted exclusively to China, he cautioned Beijing against invading self-ruled Taiwan, noting that such a move would trigger global economic turmoil. Despite what he called China's "ruthless authoritarian tradition," he called for constructive UK-China relations while stressing the need for strengthening ties with Indo-Pacific allies.³
• To safeguard the UK's national interests and address global challenges, London needs to work with China rather than isolate Beijing in a "new Cold War," Cleverly said, rejecting calls from Conservative China hawks for a tougher stance on the PRC.⁴
• Cleverly, who hopes to visit China this year, also criticized Beijing for its alleged oppression of Uyghur Muslims in China's Xinjiang region and accused China of creating "a 21st-century version of the Gulag archipelago."⁵
• Commenting on Cleverly's speech, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the country's military modernization campaign was about safeguarding national security, adding that the PCR had never invaded any country.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²The Japan Times, ³Independent, ⁴BBC News, ⁵South China Morning Post, and ⁶Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. While Cleverly's speech was rife with Cold War logic, it at least reflected some correction of the UK's previous aggressive stance toward China. The words might signal that London seeks a more balanced approach independent of Washington's geopolitical China strategy, and Beijing welcomes London's more pragmatic tone. However, it remains to be seen to what extent this will translate into the UK's China policy, and whether London will adhere to the one-China principle.
• Anti-China narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. Cleverly's warning against China's increasingly aggressive stance — that was made simultaneously with his calls for constructive engagement — reveals that London is increasingly willing to sacrifice its values and betray the free world. Beijing's imperial policy not only threatens Taiwan — there are clear indications that the CCP is preparing for war with the US. The British government's contradictory approach toward China will not pay off, and it must return to a clear and assertive position before it's too late.

Predictions