UK: 25% Chance of 'Catastrophic' Pandemic Within 5 Years

Facts

• On Thursday, the UK's National Security Risk Assessment was declassified revealing that there's a one-in-four chance the European nation could face a "catastrophic" pandemic within the next five years.¹
• The analysis, conducted by the UK government, looked at nearly 90 vulnerabilities to determine which posed the most severe threat and would deliver significant impacts. In addition to a major outbreak, the assessment identified artificial intelligence (AI) drone attacks on key infrastructure and energy disruption as other major risks.¹
• The Cabinet Office declassified the analysis as a preparedness measure. The effort to be transparent revealed that a pandemic more severe than COVID could impact as much as half of the residents and leave more than 840K people dead and another 1.34M people requiring care.²
• The Deputy Prime Minister, Oliver Dowden said, "By focusing on our collective resilience, we can help the nation be more safe, more secure and, in turn, more prosperous."³
• The analysis also warns that a new pandemic may require a behavior change by residents depending on the severity and nature of the pandemic and the subsequent government response.³
• While using the analysis to show the "worst-case-scenario," the UK government hopes that the scientific and risk-based communities will challenge their data and help the private and public sectors develop risk management and continuity plans.²

Sources: ¹Inews.Co.Uk, ²Times, and ³The Telegraph.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Fortune Well. While governments including the UK suffered under the heavy burden of the COVID response, there is good news. If governments apply lessons learned from the recent pandemic, the chances of seeing another are reduced by as much as 71%. Having a strong implementation strategy for rapid vaccine rollout, vaccine distribution infrastructure, and other preparedness and mitigation measures can tamp down the likelihood of seeing another COVID situation or worse.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Independent. The UK is no better prepared for a pandemic today than they were for COVID in 2020. The government has repeatedly stated that another pandemic is inevitable but at the same time, agencies are dismantling public services and repurposing funding for research that could help to prevent and ultimately manage the next global disease outbreak. Early on in the COVID outbreak, the UK showed impressive resilience and dedication to public health. Sadly, since then, London has failed miserably to act on lessons learned.

Predictions