Two NATO Countries Say Russian Drones Breached Their Airspace

Facts

  • Latvia and Romania, both member states of the NATO military alliance, said Russian drones violated their airspace over the weekend.[1]
  • A Russian drone passed through Romania on its way to morning attacks in Ukraine, Romania's Ministry of National Defense said early on Sunday. Hours later, Latvia’s Defense Minister Andris Sprūds said that a Russian drone fell near the town of Rezekne on Saturday, likely straying into Latvia from neighboring Belarus.[2]
  • While Russia's incursion into Latvian airspace appears to be a rare incident, Romania — which shares a 400-mile (650 km) border with Ukraine — has reported Russian drones crossing their borders on a number of occasions.[1]
  • Mircea Geoana, a former Romanian diplomat in his last weeks as NATO's deputy secretary-general, said the military alliance condemned Russia's violation of Romanian airspace. 'While we have no information indicating an intentional attack by Russia against allies, these acts are irresponsible and potentially dangerous,' he wrote on X.[1]
  • Russian attacks into Ukraine continued Monday. Ukraine's Air Force said it shot down six of eight drones and two of three missiles in pre-dawn Russian attacks on four regions of Ukraine. Meanwhile, without specifying the extent of the damage, Ukraine's energy ministry said that energy facilities were struck in seven regions over the past day.[3]
  • On the ground, while Ukraine continued to launch attacks in Russia's Kursk region, reporting from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks positions in the war, indicated that Russian troops regained lost positions in four areas of Kursk over the past day. ISW further reported continued Russian advances near the Donetsk cities of Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar over the same time period.[4]

Sources: [1]Al Jazeera, [2]Associated Press, [3]US News & World Report and [4]Understandingwar.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Despite not meeting all its objectives, Ukraine's Kursk offensive was audacious and succeeded in turning around some of the preconceived narratives about how Ukraine was faring in the conflict. It also brought the war home to Russia, making them see the consequences of launching its invasion more than two-and-a-half years ago.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Independent. Although it started with success, Ukraine's incursion into Kursk has turned into an open-ended occupation that Russia will easily repel. Rather than take the pressure off troops in Ukraine's east, Russian forces are in fact now advancing at a faster rate than they did previously. This offensive may turn out to be a giant mistake.

Predictions