Turkish Parliament Approves Sweden’s NATO Bid

Facts

• The Turkish Parliament approved Sweden's NATO membership bid on Tuesday by 287 to 55, with four abstentions, a decision that concludes the second step of Turkey's ratification process and brings the Nordic country closer to joining the military alliance.¹
• Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan have all publicly praised this outcome, which leaves Hungary as the only NATO member that hasn't given the green light to Sweden's accession.²
• Yet, Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan still has to sign the bill into law to end the 20-month-long process that has frustrated not only Stockholm but also many of Turkey's allies in the West.³
• It remains uncertain when Turkey will file its formal approval with NATO and when Hungary — whose parliament is in recess until Feb. 15 — will complete its national ratification, meaning that there's no guarantee that Sweden will become a NATO member state anytime soon.⁴
• While Ankara had been blocking Sweden's accession to NATO due to alleged ties between Stockholm and the terrorist-designated Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), as well as to press the US to agree to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, Hungary claims that Sweden has long been hostile toward Budapest and demands steps to improve relations before ratifying the protocol.⁵
• Sweden decided to break with its security doctrine of more than 200 years of military non-alignment following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, asking to join NATO in 2022 along with neighboring Finland, which was granted full membership in April 2023.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²Le Monde, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴The New York Times, ⁵VOA and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Modern Diplomacy. Sweden’s imminent accession to NATO and Finland’s approval last year are key diplomatic wins for international security. Peace is attained through unity and strength, so adding two historically neutral countries from northern Europe to the military alliance will go a long way toward deterring aggression. With Russia on the offensive in Ukraine, all hands must be on deck to stop further attacks. While some countries may want to keep out of conflict, modern defense requires a unified front, and NATO is the main protector of the global order.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by RT. NATO claims to seek peace in Europe, but the fact is that the expansion of the aggressive military alliance is only destabilizing the continent. NATO has essentially become an anti-Russian alliance that seeks to provoke Moscow and create conflict. Moreover, NATO is destroying the concept of neutrality and non-interventionism by calling on all members to pick a side in conflicts that have nothing to do with them. NATO is hostile toward its perceived enemies, and Sweden is actually inching closer towards provoking conflict, not deterring it.

Predictions