Turkey's Erdoğan Wins Re-Election

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Facts

  • Turkey's Supreme Election Council has declared Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the winner of Sunday's presidential runoff against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, extending his 20-year rule for a further five-year term.1
  • With 99.85% of the ballots counted, preliminary results on Sunday night showed the incumbent with a four-point lead over his opponent after receiving 52.16% of the roughly 54M votes. Voter turnout was 84.22%.2
  • Following the announcement of his re-election, Erdoğan addressed his supporters from his presidential palace in Ankara. He pledged to cut inflation, rebuild the cities that collapsed in the Feb. 6 earthquakes, and promised he would not free former pro-Kurdish party head Selahattin Demirtas from jail.3
  • Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu conceded defeat but expressed his disappointment with the results of what he alleged was "the most unfair election in recent years," as well as his concerns about the future of the country.4
  • This comes two weeks after Erdoğan achieved a lead of almost five points in the first round, but failed to secure the 50% majority needed to win. He received a further boost last week, when third-place candidate Sinan Oğan publicly endorsed his candidacy.5
  • Turkey has faced a turbulent year, after an earthquake in February — estimated to have killed over 50K people — devastated the country and aggravated pre existing economic problems.6

Sources: 1Al Jazeera, 2TRT World, 3BBC News, 4Turkish Minute, 5CNN, and 6Forbes.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Daily Sabah. Under the leadership of Erdoğan and his AK Party, Turkey has broken away from a long record of corrupt, ineffective coalition governments to become a regional and international reference in several sectors, including governance and public services. The re-election of Erdoğan will preserve the integrity of the state ahead of the upcoming second centenary of the republic.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Time. While it is yet to be seen how Ankara will balance its deepening ties with Moscow and its NATO membership in the upcoming years, another five-year term under Erdoğan will surely mean continuation of current policy. As divisions between the world's democracies and autocracies become increasingly stark, Turkey is dangerously backsliding on democratic institutions and civil liberties.

Predictions