Turkey: Erdoğan Indicates Election Will Be Held May 14

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Facts

  • Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated on Wednesday that the country's elections will be held on May 14, just over three months after a deadly earthquake claimed more than 45k lives.1
  • In a speech to members of his AK party, he rejected suggestions that the presidential and parliamentary elections could be postponed or held on June 18 as formerly scheduled due to logistical challenges in the quake-hit zone. Erdoğan reportedly brought the election forward to avoid clashing with holidays in June.2
  • While Erdoğan will serve as the People's Alliance candidate for the upcoming presidential elections, the six-party opposition coalition, having decided on a joint candidate during its 12th meeting on Thursday, is expected to announce its runner on Monday.3
  • The coalition has criticized the president personally for Turkey's struggles as Erdoğan has ruled the country for two decades. It also unveiled a plan to reduce a sitting president's powers if they are successful in May's elections.4
  • Erdoğan's popularity, which had already sunk over the past year due to the rising cost of living, was further damaged as many quake survivors have criticized his government's initial response to the earthquake as slow and inadequate.5
  • He has admitted shortcomings, asking for the 'blessings' and forgiveness of survivors and announcing his intention to build hundreds of thousands of housing units beginning this month.6

Sources: 1Reuters, 2Al Jazeera, 3Daily sabah, 4Dw.com, 5New York Times and 6Independent.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Fdd. Soaring inflation, a weaker lira, and the deadly earthquake have led to a political maelstrom that could cost incumbent and frontrunner Erdoğan a political victory — a scenario in which a peaceful transfer of power is uncertain. While Western leaders should temper expectations, his removal would be the best hope for Turkey to correct its course.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Daily sabah. The opposition, which struggled to unite under a single presidential candidate, is no reassurance for Turkish voters. What Turkey currently needs is a strong leader to rebuild after the earthquake disaster and guide the country through a difficult period, which is exactly what Erdoğan will continue to do.

Predictions