Turkey Elections: Oğan Endorses Erdoğan in Runoff

Facts

• At a press conference in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Monday, Turkey's third-place presidential candidate Sinan Oğan announced his endorsement of incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the May 28 runoff election.¹
• The nationalist politician said his decision to support the current president, which followed a surprise meeting between the two on Friday, would be the "right" one "for our country and nation."²
• Oğan added that opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was unable to achieve clear successes against the ruling People's Alliance, and failed to present a compelling vision for Turkey's future to win his backing for the runoff.³
• Following the first round results, Oğan conditioned his endorsement of either candidate on adopting nationalist goals, including a timeframe for deporting millions of refugees from Turkey and declining to cooperate with pro-Kurdish and hard-line Islamist parties, which he claims are linked to terrorism.⁴
• Erdoğan thanked Oğan for his support and underlined his clear stance on fighting terrorism and defending national security. He also stressed that 450K Syrian refugees had already returned home and that there are plans to resettle another million.⁵
• The Turkish elections entered a second round after Erdoğan received 49.52% of the vote, followed by the six-party National Alliance candidate Kılıçdaroğlu with 44.88%. Oğan came in third with 5.17% of the vote.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Guardian, ³Washington Post, ⁴New York Times, ⁵POLITICO, and ⁶Daily Sabah.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Qantara. With the additional support of the ultra-nationalist Oğan, the likelihood of Erdoğan's victory in the runoff elections has risen even further. The prospect that Erdoğan will continue his rule despite rampant corruption and economic mismanagement is rooted in the population's mounting nationalism, born of the long-standing Kurdish conflict, the refugee crisis, and pervasive government propaganda. While a victory for autocratic Erdoğan may be good news for strongmen worldwide, the country's economic situation will likely worsen, as Erdoğan increasingly surrounds himself not with experts but with loyalists.
• Narrative B, as provided by Daily Sabah. In order to win the runoff election, the Kılıçdaroğlu camp is systematically and aggressively peddling a gloomy picture of the government's economic performance and fabricating impressions that the economy will deteriorate if Erdoğan is reelected. This is all the more absurd given that the Turkish economy is one of the few in the world that has grown in recent years despite the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Moreover, inflation has fallen while employment has steadily grown, as has industrial production. With Erdoğan, the electorate is choosing stability and economic advancement.

Predictions

Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)?

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